New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

A Model of Ischemia-Induced Neuroblast Activation in the Adult Subventricular Zone

12 p.

A rational fraction polynomials model to study vertical dynamic wheel-rail interaction

This paper presents a model designed to study vertical interactions between wheel and rail when the wheel moves over a rail welding. The model focuses on the spatial domain, and is drawn up in a simple fashion from track receptances. The paper obtains the receptances from a full track model in the frequency domain already developed by the authors, which includes deformation of the rail section and propagation of bending, elongation and torsional waves along an infinite track. Transformation between domains was secured by applying a modified rational fraction polynomials method. This obtains a track model with very few degrees of freedom, and thus with minimum time consumption for integration, with a good match to the original model over a sufficiently broad range of frequencies. Wheel-rail interaction is modelled on a non-linear Hertzian spring, and consideration is given to parametric excitation caused by the wheel moving over a sleeper, since this is a moving wheel model and not a moving irregularity model. The model is used to study the dynamic loads and displacements emerging at the wheel-rail contact passing over a welding defect at different speeds.

A methodology for the semiautomatic annotation of EPEC-RolSem, a basque corpus labeled at predicative level following the PropBank-Verb Net model

In this article we describe the methodology developed for the semiautomatic annotation of EPEC-RolSem, a Basque corpus labeled at predicate level following the PropBank-VerbNet model. The methodology presented is the product of detailed theoretical study of the semantic nature of verbs in Basque and of their similarities and differences with verbs in other languages. As part of the proposed methodology, we are creating a Basque lexicon on the PropBank-VerbNet model that we have named the Basque Verb Index (BVI). Our work thus dovetails the general trend toward building lexicons from tagged corpora that is clear in work conducted for other languages. EPEC-RolSem and BVI are two important resources for the computational semantic processing of Basque; as far as the authors are aware, they are also the first resources of their kind developed for Basque. In addition, each entry in BVI is linked to the corresponding verb-entry in well-known resources like PropBank, VerbNet, WordNet, Levin’s Classification and FrameNet. We have also implemented several automatic processes to aid in creating and annotating the BVI, including processes designed to facilitate the task of manual annotation.

An agent-based multi-scale wind generation model

(EuroPES 2009)

The DICER Model: Methodological Issues and Initial Results

31 p.

Observational constraints on the unified dark matter and dark energy model based on the quark bag model

In this work we investigate if a small fraction of quarks and gluons, which escaped hadronization and survived as a uniformly spread perfect fluid, can play the role of both dark matter and dark energy. This fluid, as developed in [1], is characterized by two main parameters: beta, related to the amount of quarks and gluons which act as dark matter; and gamma, acting as the cosmological constant. We explore the feasibility of this model at cosmological scales using data from type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa), Long Gamma-Ray Bursts (LGRB) and direct observational Hubble data. We find that: (i) in general, beta cannot be constrained by SNeIa data nor by LGRB or H(z) data; (ii) gamma can be constrained quite well by all three data sets, contributing with approximate to 78% to the energy matter content; (iii) when a strong prior on (only) baryonic matter is assumed, the two parameters of the model are constrained successfully. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A behavior model for blood donors and marketing strategies to retain and attract them

Objective: analyze and propose a theoretical model that describes blood donor decisions to help staff working in blood banks (nurses and others) in their efforts to capture and retain donors. Methods: analysis of several studies on the motivations to give blood in Spain over the last six years, as well as past literature on the topic, the authors' experiences in the last 25 years in over 15 Non Governmental Organizations with different levels of responsibilities, their experiences as blood donors and the informal interviews developed during those 25 years. Results: a model is proposed with different internal and external factors that influence blood donation, as well as the different stages of the decision-making process. Conclusion: the knowledge of the donation process permits the development of marketing strategies that help to increase donors and donations.

Low Effort L-i Nuclear Fusion Plasma Control Using Model Predictive Control Laws

One of the main problems of fusion energy is to achieve longer pulse duration by avoiding the premature reaction decay due to plasma instabilities. The control of the plasma inductance arises as an essential tool for the successful operation of tokamak fusion reactors in order to overcome stability issues as well as the new challenges specific to advanced scenarios operation. In this sense, given that advanced tokamaks will suffer from limited power available from noninductive current drive actuators, the transformer primary coil could assist in reducing the power requirements of the noninductive current drive sources needed for current profile control. Therefore, tokamak operation may benefit from advanced control laws beyond the traditionally used PID schemes by reducing instabilities while guaranteeing the tokamak integrity. In this paper, a novel model predictive control (MPC) scheme has been developed and successfully employed to optimize both current and internal inductance of the plasma, which influences the L-H transition timing, the density peaking, and pedestal pressure. Results show that the internal inductance and current profiles can be adequately controlled while maintaining the minimal control action required in tokamak operation.