Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Number of prior episodes and the presence of depressive symptoms are associated with longer length of stay for patients with acute manic episodes

Background: Few studies have analyzed predictors of length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted due to acute bipolar manic episodes. The purpose of the present study was to estimate LOS and to determine the potential sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with a longer hospitalization. Such information could be useful to identify those patients at high risk for long LOS and to allocate them to special treatments, with the aim of optimizing their hospital management. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study recruiting adult patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR) criteria) who had been hospitalized due to an acute manic episode with a Young Mania Rating Scale total score greater than 20. Bivariate correlational and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of LOS. Results: A total of 235 patients from 44 centers were included in the study. The only factors that were significantly associated to LOS in the regression model were the number of previous episodes and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score at admission (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with a high number of previous episodes and those with depressive symptoms during mania are more likely to stay longer in hospital. Patients with severe depressive symptoms may have a more severe or treatment-resistant course of the acute bipolar manic episode.

Intracellular Ca2+ release through ryanodine receptors contributes to AMPA receptor-mediated mitochondrial dysfunction and ER stress in oligodendrocytes

Overactivation of ionotropic glutamate receptors in oligodendrocytes induces cytosolic Ca2+ overload and excitotoxic death, a process that contributes to demyelination and multiple sclerosis. Excitotoxic insults cause well-characterized mitochondrial alterations and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) dysfunction, which is not fully understood. In this study, we analyzed the contribution of ER-Ca2+ release through ryanodine receptors (RyRs) and inositol triphosphate receptors (IP(3)Rs) to excitotoxicity in oligodendrocytes in vitro. First, we observed that oligodendrocytes express all previously characterized RyRs and IP(3)Rs. Blockade of Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release by TMB-8 following alpha-amino-3-hydroxyl-5-methyl-4-isoxazole-propionate (AMPA) receptor-mediated insults attenuated both oligodendrocyte death and cytosolic Ca2+ overload. In turn, RyR inhibition by ryanodine reduced as well the Ca2+ overload whereas IP3R inhibition was ineffective. Furthermore, AMPA-triggered mitochondrial membrane depolarization, oxidative stress and activation of caspase-3, which in all instances was diminished by RyR inhibition. In addition, we observed that AMPA induced an ER stress response as revealed by alpha subunit of the eukaryotic initiation factor 2 alpha phosphorylation, overexpression of GRP chaperones and RyR-dependent cleavage of caspase-12. Finally, attenuating ER stress with salubrinal protected oligodendrocytes from AMPA excitotoxicity. Together, these results show that Ca2+ release through RyRs contributes to cytosolic Ca2+ overload, mitochondrial dysfunction, ER stress and cell death following AMPA receptor-mediated excitotoxicity in oligodendrocytes. Cell Death and Disease (2010) 1, e54; doi:10.1038/cddis.2010.31; published online 15 July 2010