Dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes Causing Acute Otitis Media Isolated from Children with Spontaneous Middle-Ear Drainage over a 12-Year Period (1999–2010) in a Region of Northern Spain

10 p.

The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

27 p.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

The MLH1 c.1852_1853delinsGC (p.K618A) Variant in Colorectal Cancer: Genetic Association Study in 18,723 Individuals

Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequent neoplasms and an important cause of mortality in the developed world. Mendelian syndromes account for about 5% of the total burden of CRC, being Lynch syndrome and familial adenomatous polyposis the most common forms. Lynch syndrome tumors develop mainly as a consequence of defective DNA mismatch repair associated with germline mutations in MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2. A significant proportion of variants identified by screening these genes correspond to missense or noncoding changes without a clear pathogenic consequence, and they are designated as "variants of uncertain significance'', being the c.1852_1853delinsGC (p.K618A) variant in the MLH1 gene a clear example. The implication of this variant as a low-penetrance risk variant for CRC was assessed in the present study by performing a case-control study within a large cohort from the COGENT consortium-COST Action BM1206 including 18,723 individuals (8,055 colorectal cancer cases and 10,668 controls) and a case-only genotype-phenotype correlation with several clinical and pathological characteristics restricted to the Epicolon cohort. Our results showed no involvement of this variant as a low-penetrance variant for colorectal cancer genetic susceptibility and no association with any clinical and pathological characteristics including family history for this neoplasm or Lynch syndrome.