5 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration


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Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

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This paper reviews the methods for measuring the economic cost of conflict. Estimating the economic costs of conflict requires a counterfactual calculation, which makes this a very difficult task. Social researchers have resorted to different estimation methods depending on the particular effect in question. The method used in each case depends on the units being analyzed (firms, sectors, regions or countries), the outcome variable under study (aggregate output, market valuation of firms, market shares, etc.) and data availability (a single cross-section, time series or panel data). This paper reviews existing methods used in the literature to assess the economic impact of conflict: cost accounting, cross-section methods, time series methods, panel data methods, gravity models, event studies, natural experiments and comparative case studies. The paper ends with a discussion of cost estimates and directions for further research.

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Background: Contrary to what is generally thought schizophrenia is a very common mental health issue. For this, several animal models are used to assess the illness in order to develop a definitive. The most widely spread paradigm is the use of pharmacological models. Aim: The aim of this review is to display which are the most used insults for the assessment of social behaviour related negative symptoms in animal models as well as to ascertain which is the most adequate regime. Design: Literature review. Methods: PubMed database was used for this article by the search of the indexed “schizophrenia”, “animal models”, “social behaviour” and “negative symptoms” descriptors. With the exception of a single article due to it value this review is based on articles from 10 years onwards. Besides, only clinical trials and reviews written in English or Spanish and that had laboratory rodents as target population were accepted. Results: The studies assessed agree that pharmacological models (specially those regarding the NMDA receptor antagonists) are a valuable means for the experimental investigation of negative symptoms in schizophrenia with the necessity to emphasise that only some negative symptoms (anhedonia and social interaction, mainly) can be experimentally assessed. Conclusions: There is not enough evidence regarding the fours aspects of this review. PCP, Ketamine or MK-801 in sub-acute dosage regimes are currently the most indicated insults to mimic schizophrenic symptoms in rodents, although further research in needed, albeit other substances are valuable as well. (In English language exclusively)