Risk management for mathematical optimization under uncertainty

We present a general multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 problem where the uncertainty appears everywhere in the objective function, constraints matrix and right-hand-side. The uncertainty is represented by a scenario tree that can be a symmetric or a nonsymmetric one. The stochastic model is converted in a mixed 0-1 Deterministic Equivalent Model in compact representation. Due to the difficulty of the problem, the solution offered by the stochastic model has been traditionally obtained by optimizing the objective function expected value (i.e., mean) over the scenarios, usually, along a time horizon. This approach (so named risk neutral) has the inconvenience of providing a solution that ignores the variance of the objective value of the scenarios and, so, the occurrence of scenarios with an objective value below the expected one. Alternatively, we present several approaches for risk averse management, namely, a scenario immunization strategy, the optimization of the well known Value-at-Risk (VaR) and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk strategies, the optimization of the expected mean minus the weighted probability of having a "bad" scenario to occur for the given solution provided by the model, the optimization of the objective function expected value subject to stochastic dominance constraints (SDC) for a set of profiles given by the pairs of threshold objective values and either bounds on the probability of not reaching the thresholds or the expected shortfall over them, and the optimization of a mixture of the VaR and SDC strategies.

Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Two-Stage Stochastic Optimization. An Application in the Third Sector

[en] It is known that most of the problems applied in the real life present uncertainty. In the rst part of the dissertation, basic concepts and properties of the Stochastic Programming have been introduced to the reader, also known as Optimization under Uncertainty. Moreover, since stochastic programs are complex to compute, we have presented some other models such as wait-and-wee, expected value and the expected result of using expected value. The expected value of perfect information and the value of stochastic solution measures quantify how worthy the Stochastic Programming is, with respect to the other models. In the second part, it has been designed and implemented with the modeller GAMS and the optimizer CPLEX an application that optimizes the distribution of non-perishable products, guaranteeing some nutritional requirements with minimum cost. It has been developed within Hazia project, managed by Sortarazi association and associated with Food Bank of Biscay and Basic Social Services of several districts of Biscay.

Going Multinational under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Published as an article in: Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, vol. 29, issue 6, pages 1171-1191.

MPI parallel programming of mixed integer optimization problems using CPLEX with COIN-OR

The aim of this technical report is to present some detailed explanations in order to help to understand and use the Message Passing Interface (MPI) parallel programming for solving several mixed integer optimization problems. We have developed a C++ experimental code that uses the IBM ILOG CPLEX optimizer within the COmputational INfrastructure for Operations Research (COIN-OR) and MPI parallel computing for solving the optimization models under UNIX-like systems. The computational experience illustrates how can we solve 44 optimization problems which are asymmetric with respect to the number of integer and continuous variables and the number of constraints. We also report a comparative with the speedup and efficiency of several strategies implemented for some available number of threads.

Scenario Cluster Lagrangian Decomposition in two stage stochastic mixed 0-1 optimization

In this paper we introduce four scenario Cluster based Lagrangian Decomposition (CLD) procedures for obtaining strong lower bounds to the (optimal) solution value of two-stage stochastic mixed 0-1 problems. At each iteration of the Lagrangian based procedures, the traditional aim consists of obtaining the solution value of the corresponding Lagrangian dual via solving scenario submodels once the nonanticipativity constraints have been dualized. Instead of considering a splitting variable representation over the set of scenarios, we propose to decompose the model into a set of scenario clusters. We compare the computational performance of the four Lagrange multiplier updating procedures, namely the Subgradient Method, the Volume Algorithm, the Progressive Hedging Algorithm and the Dynamic Constrained Cutting Plane scheme for different numbers of scenario clusters and different dimensions of the original problem. Our computational experience shows that the CLD bound and its computational effort depend on the number of scenario clusters to consider. In any case, our results show that the CLD procedures outperform the traditional LD scheme for single scenarios both in the quality of the bounds and computational effort. All the procedures have been implemented in a C++ experimental code. A broad computational experience is reported on a test of randomly generated instances by using the MIP solvers COIN-OR and CPLEX for the auxiliary mixed 0-1 cluster submodels, this last solver within the open source engine COIN-OR. We also give computational evidence of the model tightening effect that the preprocessing techniques, cut generation and appending and parallel computing tools have in stochastic integer optimization. Finally, we have observed that the plain use of both solvers does not provide the optimal solution of the instances included in the testbed with which we have experimented but for two toy instances in affordable elapsed time. On the other hand the proposed procedures provide strong lower bounds (or the same solution value) in a considerably shorter elapsed time for the quasi-optimal solution obtained by other means for the original stochastic problem.

Dynamic optimization of track components to minimize rail corrugation

In this paper, the influence on corrugation of the most significant track parameters has been examined. After this parametric study, the optimization of the track parameters to minimize the undulatory wear growth has been achieved. Finally, the influence of the dispersion of the track and contact parameters on corrugation growth has been studied. A method has been developed to obtain an optimal solution of the track parameters which minimizes corrugation growth, thus ensuring that this solution remains optimum despite dispersion of track parameters and wheel-rail contact uncertainties. This work is based on the computer application RACING (RAil Corrugation INitiation and Growth) which has been developed by the authors to predict rail corrugation features.

Generating cluster submodels from a multistage stochastic mixed integer optimization model using break stage

We present a scheme to generate clusters submodels with stage ordering from a (symmetric or a nonsymmetric one) multistage stochastic mixed integer optimization model using break stage. We consider a stochastic model in compact representation and MPS format with a known scenario tree. The cluster submodels are built by storing first the 0-1 the variables, stage by stage, and then the continuous ones, also stage by stage. A C++ experimental code has been implemented for reordering the stochastic model as well as the cluster decomposition after the relaxation of the non-anticipativiy constraints until the so-called breakstage. The computational experience shows better performance of the stage ordering in terms of elapsed time in a randomly generated testbed of multistage stochastic mixed integer problems.

Design,optimization and in vivo evaluation of non-viral vectors for gene therapy. Applications in ocular disorders

227 págs.

Income Taxation and Growth in an OLG Economy: Does Aggregate Uncertainty Play any Role?

We analyze the effects of capital income taxation on long-run growth in a stochastic, two-period overlapping generations economy. Endogenous growth is driven by a positive externality of physical capital in the production sector that makes firms exhibit an aggregate technology in equilibrium. We distinguish between capital income and labor income, and between attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution of consumption. We show necessary and sufficient conditions such that i) increments in the capital income taxation lead to higher equilibrium growth rates, and ii) the effect of changes in the capital income tax rate on the equilibrium growth may be of opposite signs in stochastic and in deterministic economies. Such a sign reversal is shown to be more likely depending on i) how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares to one, and ii) the size of second- period labor supply. Numerical simulations show that for reasonable values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, a sign reversal shows up only for implausibly high values of the second- period’s labor supply. The conclusion is that deterministic OLG economies are a good approximation of the effect of taxes on the equilibrium growth rate as in Smith (1996).

Framework for the Shape Optimization of Aerodynamic Profiles Using Genetic Algorithms

This study developed a framework for the shape optimization of aerodynamics profiles using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and genetic algorithms. Agenetic algorithm code and a commercial CFD code were integrated to develop a CFD shape optimization tool. The results obtained demonstrated the effectiveness of the developed tool. The shape optimization of airfoils was studied using different strategies to demonstrate the capacity of this tool with different GA parameter combinations.

Optimization of solution-processed oligothiophene:fullerene based organic solar cells by using solvent additives

The optimization of solution-processed organic bulk-heterojunction solar cells with the acceptor-substituted quinquethiophene DCV5T-Bu-4 as donor in conjunction with PC61BM as acceptor is described. Power conversion efficiencies up to 3.0% and external quantum efficiencies up to 40% were obtained through the use of 1-chloronaphthalene as solvent additive in the fabrication of the photovoltaic devices. Furthermore, atomic force microscopy investigations of the photoactive layer gave insight into the distribution of donor and acceptor within the blend. The unique combination of solubility and thermal stability of DCV5T-Bu-4 also allows for fabrication of organic solar cells by vacuum deposition. Thus, we were able to perform a rare comparison of the device characteristics of the solution-processed DCV5T-Bu-4:PC61BM solar cell with its vacuum-processed DCV5T-Bu-4:C-60 counterpart. Interestingly in this case, the efficiencies of the small-molecule organic solar cells prepared by using solution techniques are approaching those fabricated by using vacuum technology. This result is significant as vacuum-processed devices typically display much better performances in photovoltaic cells. Keywords

Optimization of Organic-Inorganic Inter-phase in Hybrid Systems Based on Waterborne Polyurethanes and Silica Nanostructures

215 p.

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty

41 p.