Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Empirical Doppler Characterization of Signals Scattered by Wind Turbines in the UHF Band under Near Field Condition

Time variability of the scattering signals from wind turbines may lead to degradation problems on the communication systems provided in the UHF band, especially under near field condition. In order to analyze the variability due to the rotation of the blades, this paper characterizes empirical Doppler spectra obtained from real samples of signals scattered by wind turbines with rotating blades under near field condition. A new Doppler spectrum model is proposed to fit the spectral characteristics of these signals, providing notable goodness of fit. Finally, the effect of this kind of time variability on the degradation of OFDM signals is studied.

Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models

International fisheries agencies recommend exploitation paths that satisfy two features. First, for precautionary reasons exploitation paths should avoid high fishing mortality in those fisheries where the biomass is depleted to a degree that jeopardise the stock's capacity to produce the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Second, for economic and social reasons, captures should be as stable (smooth) as possible over time. In this article we show that a conflict between these two interests may occur when seeking for optimal exploitation paths using age structured bioeconomic approach. Our results show that this conflict be overtaken by using non constant discount factors that value future stocks considering their relative intertemporal scarcity.