Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Variable structure control for maximum wind power extraction

EuroPES 2009

Scenario Cluster Lagrangian Decomposition in two stage stochastic mixed 0-1 optimization

In this paper we introduce four scenario Cluster based Lagrangian Decomposition (CLD) procedures for obtaining strong lower bounds to the (optimal) solution value of two-stage stochastic mixed 0-1 problems. At each iteration of the Lagrangian based procedures, the traditional aim consists of obtaining the solution value of the corresponding Lagrangian dual via solving scenario submodels once the nonanticipativity constraints have been dualized. Instead of considering a splitting variable representation over the set of scenarios, we propose to decompose the model into a set of scenario clusters. We compare the computational performance of the four Lagrange multiplier updating procedures, namely the Subgradient Method, the Volume Algorithm, the Progressive Hedging Algorithm and the Dynamic Constrained Cutting Plane scheme for different numbers of scenario clusters and different dimensions of the original problem. Our computational experience shows that the CLD bound and its computational effort depend on the number of scenario clusters to consider. In any case, our results show that the CLD procedures outperform the traditional LD scheme for single scenarios both in the quality of the bounds and computational effort. All the procedures have been implemented in a C++ experimental code. A broad computational experience is reported on a test of randomly generated instances by using the MIP solvers COIN-OR and CPLEX for the auxiliary mixed 0-1 cluster submodels, this last solver within the open source engine COIN-OR. We also give computational evidence of the model tightening effect that the preprocessing techniques, cut generation and appending and parallel computing tools have in stochastic integer optimization. Finally, we have observed that the plain use of both solvers does not provide the optimal solution of the instances included in the testbed with which we have experimented but for two toy instances in affordable elapsed time. On the other hand the proposed procedures provide strong lower bounds (or the same solution value) in a considerably shorter elapsed time for the quasi-optimal solution obtained by other means for the original stochastic problem.

Consumption and portfolio rules whit stochastic hyperbolic discounting

We extend the classic Merton (1969, 1971) problem that investigates the joint consumption-savings and portfolio-selection problem under capital risk by assuming sophisticated but time-inconsistent agents. We introduce stochastic hyperbolic preferences as in Harris and Laibson (2013) and find closed-form solutions for Merton's optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem in continuous time. We find that the portfolio rule remains identical to the time-consistent solution with power utility and no borrowing constraints. However,the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is unambiguously greater than the time-consistent, exponential case and,importantly, it is also more responsive to changes in risk. These results suggest that hyperbolic discounting with sophisticated agents offers promise for contributing to explaining important aspects of asset market data.

Sliding Mode Control Strategy for Wind Turbine Power Maximization

The efficiency of the wind power conversions systems can be greatly improved using an appropriate control algorithm. In this work, a sliding mode control for variable speed wind turbine that incorporates a doubly fed induction generator is described. The electrical system incorporates a wound rotor induction machine with back-to-back three phase power converter bridges between its rotor and the grid. In the presented design the so-called vector control theory is applied, in order to simplify the electrical equations. The proposed control scheme uses stator flux-oriented vector control for the rotor side converter bridge control and grid voltage vector control for the grid side converter bridge control. The stability analysis of the proposed sliding mode controller under disturbances and parameter uncertainties is provided using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally simulated results show, on the one hand, that the proposed controller provides high-performance dynamic characteristics, and on the other hand, that this scheme is robust with respect to the uncertainties that usually appear in the real systems.

Robust speed control for a variable speed wind turbine

Modern wind turbines are designed in order to work in variable speed opera-tions. To perform this task, these turbines are provided with adjustable speed generators, like the double feed induction generator (DFIG). One of the main advantages of adjustable speed generators is improving the system efficiency compared with _xed speed generators, because turbine speed can be adjusted as a function of wind speed in order to maximize the output power. However, this system requires a suitable speed controller in order to track the optimal reference speed of the wind turbine. In this work, a sliding mode control for variable speed wind turbines is proposed. The proposed design also uses the vector oriented control theory in order to simplify the DFIG dynamical equations. The stability analysis of the proposed controller has been carried out under wind variations and pa-rameter uncertainties using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the simulated results show on the one hand that the proposed controller provides a high-performance dynamic behavior, and on the other hand that this scheme is robust with respect to parameter uncertainties and wind speed variations, which usually appear in real systems.

Adaptive variable structure control law for a variable speed wind turbine

Presentado en el 13th WSEAS International Conference on Automatic Control, Modelling and Simulation, ACMOS'11

Sliding mode control law for a variable speedwind turbine

Modern wind turbines are designed in order to work in variable speed operations. To perform this task, wind turbines are provided with adjustable speed generators, like the double feed induction generator. One of the main advantage of adjustable speed generators is improving the system efficiency compared to fixed speed generators, because turbine speed can be adjusted as a function of wind speed in order to maximize the output power. However this system requires a suitable speed controller in order to track the optimal reference speed of the wind turbine. In this work, a sliding mode control for variable speed wind turbines is proposed. An integral sliding surface is used, because the integral term avoids the use of the acceleration signal, which reduces the high frequency components in the sliding variable. The proposed design also uses the vector oriented control theory in order to simplify the generator dynamical equations. The stability analysis of the proposed controller has been carried out under wind variations and parameter uncertainties by using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally simulated results show, on the one hand that the proposed controller provides a high-performance dynamic behavior, and on the other hand that this scheme is robust with respect to parameter uncertainties and wind speed variations, that usually appear in real systems.

An adaptive sliding mode control law for the power maximization of the wind turbine system

POWERENG 2011

Sliding mode control strategy for variable speed wind turbines

EFTA 2009

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services

32 p.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.