Landscape valuation through discrete choice experiments: Current practice and future research reflections

This work has been presented in: V Conference AERNA, Faro (Portugal), 30 May 2012-1 June 2012 and IV Workshop on Valuation Methods in Agro-food and Environmental Economics, Castelldefels (Barcelona, Spain), 12 July 2012-13 July 2012.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

A predictive model of the export behaviour of small and medium sized firms: an application to the case of Castilla-La Mancha

[EN] Based on an extensive theoretical review, the aim of this paper is to carry out a closer examination of the differences between exporters according to their commitment to the international market. Once the main disparities are identified by means of a non-parametric test, a logistic analysis based upon data collected from small and medium sized manufacturing firms is conducted in order to construct a classificatory model.

Temperature-and pH-Sensitive Nanohydrogels of Poly(N-Isopropylacrylamide) for Food Packaging Applications: Modelling the Swelling-Collapse Behaviour

Temperature-sensitive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPA) nanohydrogels were synthesized by nanoemulsion polymerization in water-in-oil systems. Several cross-linking degrees and the incorporation of acrylic acid as comonomer at different concentrations were tested to produce nanohydrogels with a wide range of properties. The physicochemical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels, and their relationship with the swelling-collapse behaviour, were studied to evaluate the suitability of PNIPA nanoparticles as smart delivery systems (for active packaging). The swelling-collapse transition was analyzed by the change in the optical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels using ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. The thermodynamic parameters associated with the nanohydrogels collapse were calculated using a mathematical approach based on the van't Hoff analysis, assuming a two-state equilibrium (swollen to collapsed). A mathematical model is proposed to predict both the thermally induced collapse, and the collapse induced by the simultaneous action of two factors (temperature and pH, or temperature and organic solvent concentration). Finally, van't Hoff analysis was compared with differential scanning calorimetry. The results obtained allow us to solve the problem of determining the molecular weight of the structural repeating unit in cross-linked NIPA polymers, which, as we show, can be estimated from the ratio of the molar heat capacity (obtained from the van't Hoff analysis) to the specific heat capacity (obtained from calorimetric measurements).

Advances towards behaviour-based indoor robotic exploration

215 p.

Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Conflicts in Classification

4 p.

Classifying Ecosystem Services for Economic Valuation: The case of forest water services

30 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Temperature-and pH-Sensitive Nanohydrogels of Poly(N-Isopropylacrylamide) for Food Packaging Applications: Modelling the Swelling-Collapse Behaviour

Temperature-sensitive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPA) nanohydrogels were synthesized by nanoemulsion polymerization in water-in-oil systems. Several cross-linking degrees and the incorporation of acrylic acid as comonomer at different concentrations were tested to produce nanohydrogels with a wide range of properties. The physicochemical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels, and their relationship with the swelling-collapse behaviour, were studied to evaluate the suitability of PNIPA nanoparticles as smart delivery systems (for active packaging). The swelling-collapse transition was analyzed by the change in the optical properties of PNIPA nanohydrogels using ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. The thermodynamic parameters associated with the nanohydrogels collapse were calculated using a mathematical approach based on the van't Hoff analysis, assuming a two-state equilibrium (swollen to collapsed). A mathematical model is proposed to predict both the thermally induced collapse, and the collapse induced by the simultaneous action of two factors (temperature and pH, or temperature and organic solvent concentration). Finally, van't Hoff analysis was compared with differential scanning calorimetry. The results obtained allow us to solve the problem of determining the molecular weight of the structural repeating unit in cross-linked NIPA polymers, which, as we show, can be estimated from the ratio of the molar heat capacity (obtained from the van't Hoff analysis) to the specific heat capacity (obtained from calorimetric measurements).

Energy retrofits in social housing. Analysis of its thermal behaviour.

468 p.