Innovación y Política Tecnológica: el caso del Sector Transformador y el Sector Servicios a Empresas

[ES] Este trabajo analiza algunos de los determinantes de la innovación de producto en el caso de los emprendedores del sector transformador y del sector servicios a empresas. Entre estos factores se encuentran el capital humano, la tecnología, el grado de competencia del mercado, las expectativas y el grado de internacionalización de las iniciativas emprendedoras de estos dos sectores. Asimismo, se analiza cómo las medidas de política tecnológica pueden o no ser eficientes.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

Alveolar nitric oxide and its role in pediatric asthma control assessment

Resumen Background: Nitric oxide can be measured at multiple flow rates to determine proximal (maximum airway nitric oxide flux; Jaw(NO)) and distal inflammation (alveolar nitric oxide concentration; CA(NO)). The main aim was to study the association among symptoms, lung function, proximal (maximum airway nitric oxide flux) and distal (alveolar nitric oxide concentration) airway inflammation in asthmatic children treated and not treated with inhaled glucocorticoids. Methods: A cross-sectional study with prospective data collection was carried out in a consecutive sample of girls and boys aged between 6 and 16 years with a medical diagnosis of asthma. Maximum airway nitric oxide flux and alveolar nitric oxide concentration were calculated according to the two-compartment model. In asthmatic patients, the asthma control questionnaire (CAN) was completed and forced spirometry was performed. In controls, differences between the sexes in alveolar nitric oxide concentration and maximum airway nitric oxide flux and their correlation with height were studied. The correlation among the fraction of exhaled NO at 50 ml/s (FENO50), CA(NO), Jaw(NO), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and the CAN questionnaire was measured and the degree of agreement regarding asthma control assessment was studied using Cohen's kappa. Results: We studied 162 children; 49 healthy (group 1), 23 asthmatic participants without treatment (group 2) and 80 asthmatic patients treated with inhaled corticosteroids (group 3). CA(NO) (ppb) was 2.2 (0.1-4.5), 3 (0.2-9.2) and 2.45 (0.1-24), respectively. Jaw(NO) (pl/s) was 516 (98.3-1470), 2356.67 (120-6110) and 1426 (156-11805), respectively. There was a strong association (r = 0.97) between FENO50 and Jaw(NO) and the degree of agreement was very good in group 2 and was good in group 3. There was no agreement or only slight agreement between the measures used to monitor asthma control (FEV1, CAN questionnaire, CA(NO) and Jaw(NO)). Conclusions: The results for CA(NO) and Jaw(NO) in controls were similar to those found in other reports. There was no agreement or only slight agreement among the three measure instruments analyzed to assess asthma control. In our sample, no additional information was provided by CA(NO) and Jaw(NO).

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

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Optimal Taxation and Indeterminacy in the Uzawa-Lucas Model with Sector-specific Externalities

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