The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Unions, Monetary Shocks and the Labour Market Cycle

Published as an article in: Economic Modelling, 2011, vol. 28, issue 3, pages 1140-1149.

Technology Outlook as a tool for the management of innovation

[EN] The purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical overview of innovation management and the tools that can aid in this endeavour. The paper adopts a user-oriented description, aiming at making SMEs familiar with the possibilities opened by innovation management tools in general and technology outlook in particular.

An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Squaring the circle. Social and environmental implications of pre-pottery neolithic building technology at Tell Qarassa (South Syria)

We present the results of the microstratigraphic, phytolith and wood charcoal study of the remains of a 10.5 ka roof. The roof is part of a building excavated at Tell Qarassa (South Syria), assigned to the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B period (PPNB). The Pre-Pottery Neolithic (PPN) period in the Levant coincides with the emergence of farming. This fundamental change in subsistence strategy implied the shift from mobile to settled aggregated life, and from tents and huts to hard buildings. As settled life spread across the Levant, a generalised transition from round to square buildings occurred, that is a trademark of the PPNB period. The study of these buildings is fundamental for the understanding of the ever-stronger reciprocal socio-ecological relationship humans developed with the local environment since the introduction of sedentism and domestication. Descriptions of buildings in PPN archaeological contexts are usually restricted to the macroscopic observation of wooden elements (posts and beams) and mineral components (daub, plaster and stone elements). Reconstructions of microscopic and organic components are frequently based on ethnographic analogy. The direct study of macroscopic and microscopic, organic and mineral, building components performed at Tell Qarassa provides new insights on building conception, maintenance, use and destruction. These elements reflect new emerging paradigms in the relationship between Neolithic societies and the environment. A square building was possibly covered here with a radial roof, providing a glance into a topologic shift in the conception and understanding of volumes, from round-based to square-based geometries. Macroscopic and microscopic roof components indicate buildings were conceived for year-round residence rather than seasonal mobility. This implied performing maintenance and restoration of partially damaged buildings, as well as their adaptation to seasonal variability

Semi-automatic generation of learning domain modules for technology supported learning systems

In a time when Technology Supported Learning Systems are being widely used, there is a lack of tools that allows their development in an automatic or semi-automatic way. Technology Supported Learning Systems require an appropriate Domain Module, ie. the pedagogical representation of the domain to be mastered, in order to be effective. However, content authoring is a time and effort consuming task, therefore, efforts in automatising the Domain Module acquisition are necessary.Traditionally, textbooks have been used as the main mechanism to maintain and transmit the knowledge of a certain subject or domain. Textbooks have been authored by domain experts who have organised the contents in a means that facilitate understanding and learning, considering pedagogical issues.Given that textbooks are appropriate sources of information, they can be used to facilitate the development of the Domain Module allowing the identification of the topics to be mastered and the pedagogical relationships among them, as well as the extraction of Learning Objects, ie. meaningful fragments of the textbook with educational purpose.Consequently, in this work DOM-Sortze, a framework for the semi-automatic construction of Domain Modules from electronic textbooks, has been developed. DOM-Sortze uses NLP techniques, heuristic reasoning and ontologies to fulfill its work. DOM-Sortze has been designed and developed with the aim of automatising the development of the Domain Module, regardless of the subject, promoting the knowledge reuse and facilitating the collaboration of the users during the process.

Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach

28 p.

Structural capital, innovation capability, and company performance in technology-based colombian firms

[EN] In today s economy, innovation is considered to be one of the main driving forces behind business competitiveness, if not the most relevant one. Traditionally, the study of innovation has been addressed from different perspectives. Recently, literature on knowledge management and intellectual capital has provided new insights. Considering this, the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of different organizational conditions i.e. structural capital on innovation capability and innovation performance, from an intellectual capital (IC) perspective. As regards innovation capability, two dimensions are considered: new idea generation and innovation project management. The population subject to study is made up of technology-based Colombian firms. In order to gather information about the relevant variables involved in the research, a questionnaire was designed and addressed to the CEOs of the companies making up the target population. The sample analyzed is made up of 69 companies and is large enough to carry out a statistical study based on structural equation modelling (partial least squares approach) using PLS-Graph software (Chin and Frye, 2003). The results obtained show that structural capital explains to a great extent both the effectiveness of the new idea generation process and of innovation project management. However, the influence of each specific organizational component making up structural capital (organizational design, organizational culture, hiring and professional development policies, innovation strategy, technological capital, and external structure) varies. Moreover, successful innovation project management is the only innovation capability dimension that exerts a significant impact on company performance.

Political Institutions, Technology and Growth: a dynamic panel approach

This paper investigates whether the effect of political institutions on sectoral economic performance is determined by the level of technological development of industries. Building on previous studies on the linkages among political institutions, technology and economic growth, we employ the dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator for a sample of 4,134 country-industries from 61 industries and 89 countries over the 1990-2010 period. Our main findings suggest that changes of political institutions towards higher levels of democracy, political rights and civil liberties enhance economic growth in technologically developed industries. On the contrary, the same institutional changes might retard economic growth of those industries that are below a technological development threshold. Overall, these results give evidence of a technologically conditioned nature of political institutions to be growth-promoting.