Economic Effects of Global Warming under Stock Growth Uncertainty: The European Sardine Fishery

Global warming of the oceans is expected to alter the environmental conditions that determine the growth of a fishery resource. Most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios that focus on economic growth, or they concentrate on simulating the potential losses or cost to fisheries due to climate change. However, analysis that addresses model optimization problems to better understand of the complex dynamics of climate change and marine ecosystems is still lacking. In this paper a simple algorithm to compute transitional dynamics in order to quantify the effect of climate change on the European sardine fishery is presented. The model results indicate that global warming will not necessarily lead to a monotonic decrease in the expected biomass levels. Our results show that if the resource is exploited optimally then in the short run, increases in the surface temperature of the fishery ground are compatible with higher expected biomass and economic profit.

Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC

The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

18S rRNA V9 metabarcoding for diet characterization: a critical evaluation with two sympatric zooplanktivorous fish species

The potential of the 18S rRNA V9 metabarcoding approach for diet assessment was explored using MiSeq paired-end (PE; 2 9 150 bp) technology. To critically evaluate the method's performance with degraded/digested DNA, the diets of two zooplanktivorous fish species from the Bay of Biscay, European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), were analysed. The taxonomic resolution and quantitative potential of the 18S V9 metabarcoding was first assessed both in silico and with mock and field plankton samples. Our method was capable of discriminating species within the reference database in a reliable way providing there was at least one variable position in the 18S V9 region. Furthermore, it successfully discriminated diet between both fish species, including habitat and diel differences among sardines, overcoming some of the limitations of traditional visual-based diet analysis methods. The high sensitivity and semi-quantitative nature of the 18S V9 metabarcoding approach was supported by both visual microscopy and qPCR-based results. This molecular approach provides an alternative cost and time effective tool for food-web analysis.