Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict

This paper reviews the methods for measuring the economic cost of conflict. Estimating the economic costs of conflict requires a counterfactual calculation, which makes this a very difficult task. Social researchers have resorted to different estimation methods depending on the particular effect in question. The method used in each case depends on the units being analyzed (firms, sectors, regions or countries), the outcome variable under study (aggregate output, market valuation of firms, market shares, etc.) and data availability (a single cross-section, time series or panel data). This paper reviews existing methods used in the literature to assess the economic impact of conflict: cost accounting, cross-section methods, time series methods, panel data methods, gravity models, event studies, natural experiments and comparative case studies. The paper ends with a discussion of cost estimates and directions for further research.

Income Taxation and Growth in an OLG Economy: Does Aggregate Uncertainty Play any Role?

We analyze the effects of capital income taxation on long-run growth in a stochastic, two-period overlapping generations economy. Endogenous growth is driven by a positive externality of physical capital in the production sector that makes firms exhibit an aggregate technology in equilibrium. We distinguish between capital income and labor income, and between attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution of consumption. We show necessary and sufficient conditions such that i) increments in the capital income taxation lead to higher equilibrium growth rates, and ii) the effect of changes in the capital income tax rate on the equilibrium growth may be of opposite signs in stochastic and in deterministic economies. Such a sign reversal is shown to be more likely depending on i) how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares to one, and ii) the size of second- period labor supply. Numerical simulations show that for reasonable values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, a sign reversal shows up only for implausibly high values of the second- period’s labor supply. The conclusion is that deterministic OLG economies are a good approximation of the effect of taxes on the equilibrium growth rate as in Smith (1996).

Analysis of the differences between the rates of inflation associated with two aggregate price level: The case of the euro area and the United States

Idioma: Inglés Abstract: This project focuses on two indicators of prices, the GDP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI), and analyzes the differences and similarities they present. These price indexes have been chosen taking into account its great representativeness and importance to economic and social level, and its direct relationship to the overall functioning of the economy and, in particular, inflation. It should be also mentioned that this study was conducted for cases of the euro area and the United States, as the impact of these economies in the economic and social situation at international level is very significant.

Population age structure and private consumption in Spain

In this paper we study the effect of population age distribution upon private consumption expenditure in Spain from 1964 to 1997 using aggregate data. We obtain four main results. First, changes in the population pyramid have substantial effects upon the behaviour of private consumption. Second, the pattern of the coefficients of the demographic variables is not consistent with the simplest version of the life cycle hypothesis. Third, we estimate the impact of the demographic transition upon consumption and find positive values associated with episodes in which the shares of groups of individuals with expenditure levels higher (lower) than the mean increased (decreased). Fourth, the results are robust to alternative specifications for the population age distribution.

An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Fishing effort validation and substitution possibilities among components: the case study of the VIII division European anchovy fishery

Command and control regulation programs, particularly input constraints, typically fail to achieve stated objectives, because fishermen may substitute unregulated for regulated inputs. It is, thus, essential to have an understanding of the internal structure of production technology. A primal formulation is used to estimate a translog production function at the vessels level that includes fishing effort and fisherman’s skill. The flexibility of the selected functional permits the analysis of the substitution possibilities among inputs by estimating the elasticity of substitution with no prior constraints. Particular attention is paid to the empirical validation of fishing effort as an aggregate input, which implies either, the acceptation of the joint hypothesis that inputs making up effort are weakly separable from the inputs out of the subgroup or considering that effort is an intermediate input produced by a non-separable two stage technology. Cross sectional data from the Spanish purse seine fleet operating in the VIII Division European anchovy fishery provide evidence of limited input substitution possibilities among the inputs making up the empirically validated fishing effort translog micro-production function.

Intermediate Macroeconomics : Self-evaluation exercises

This resource can be particularly helpful to students taking the Intermediate Macroeconomics course, which corresponds to the second year of the current Degree in Economics at the University of the Basque Country UPV/ EHU. The precise content of this resource is a collection of eight chapters of multiple-choice questions. For each question the user is asked to guess which the correct answer is. Finally, the tool will return all the correct answers for the whole test, thereby allowing the user to check the validity of his/her answers. A remarkable feature of the tool is that it has been edited in three versions, for the three languages (Spanish, Basque and English) in which the subject is taught at the UPV/EHU.

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)

40 p.

From Shadow to Green: Linking Environmental Fiscal Reforms and the Informal Economy

47 p.

Local air pollution and global climate change taxes: a distributional analysis

25 p.

Cointegration analysis of money demand in the Euro Area

The analysis of the evolution of the M3 money aggregate is an important element in the definition and implementation of monetary policy for the ECB. A well-defined and stable long run demand function is an essential requisite for M3 to be a valid monetary tool. Therefore, this paper analyzes based in cointegration techniques the existence of a long run money demand, estimating it and testing its stability for the Euro Area and for ten of its member countries. Specifically, bearing in mind the high degree of monetary instability that the current economic crisis has created in the Euro Area, we also test whether this has had a noticeable impact in the cointegration among real money demand and its determinants. The analysis gives evidence of the existence of a long run relationship when the aggregated Euro Area and six of the ten countries are considered. However, these relationships are highly instable since the outbreak of the financial crisis, leading in some cases to even rejecting cointegration. All this suggests that the ECB’s strategy of focusing in the M3 monetary aggregates could not be a convenient approach under the current circumstances

Systematic liquidity: commonality and inter-temporal variation in the Portuguese stock market

[EN] The aim of this paper is to study systematic liquidity at the Euronext Lisbon Stock Exchange. The motivation for this research is provided by the growing interest in financial literature about stock liquidity and the implications of commonality in liquidity for asset pricing since it could represent a source of non-diversifiable risk. Namely, it is analysed whether there exist common factors that drive the variation in individual stock liquidity and the causes of the inter-temporal variation of aggregate liquidity. Monthly data for the period between January 1988 and December 2011 is used to compute some of the most used proxies for liquidity: bid-ask spreads, turnover rate, trading volume, proportion of zero returns and the illiquidity ratio. Following Chordia et al. (2000) methodology, some evidence of commonality in liquidity is found in the Portuguese stock market when the proportion of zero returns is used as a measure of liquidity. In relation to the factors that drive the inter-temporal variation of the Portuguese stock market liquidity, the results obtained within a VAR framework suggest that changes in real economy activity, monetary policy (proxied by changes in monetary aggregate M1) and stock market returns play an important role as determinants of commonality in liquidity.

An Embedded Stress Sensor for Concrete SHM Based on Amorphous Ferromagnetic Microwires

A new smart concrete aggregate design as a candidate for applications in structural health monitoring (SHM) of critical elements in civil infrastructure is proposed. The cement-based stress/strain sensor was developed by utilizing the stress/strain sensing properties of a magnetic microwire embedded in cement-based composite (MMCC). This is a contact-less type sensor that measures variations of magnetic properties resulting from stress variations. Sensors made of these materials can be designed to satisfy the specific demand for an economic way to monitor concrete infrastructure health. For this purpose, we embedded a thin magnetic microwire in the core of a cement-based cylinder, which was inserted into the concrete specimen under study as an extra aggregate. The experimental results show that the embedded MMCC sensor is capable of measuring internal compressive stress around the range of 1-30 MPa. Two stress sensing properties of the embedded sensor under uniaxial compression were studied: the peak amplitude and peak position of magnetic switching field. The sensitivity values for the amplitude and position within the measured range were 5 mV/MPa and 2.5 mu s/MPa, respectively.