Cointegration analysis of money demand in the Euro Area

The analysis of the evolution of the M3 money aggregate is an important element in the definition and implementation of monetary policy for the ECB. A well-defined and stable long run demand function is an essential requisite for M3 to be a valid monetary tool. Therefore, this paper analyzes based in cointegration techniques the existence of a long run money demand, estimating it and testing its stability for the Euro Area and for ten of its member countries. Specifically, bearing in mind the high degree of monetary instability that the current economic crisis has created in the Euro Area, we also test whether this has had a noticeable impact in the cointegration among real money demand and its determinants. The analysis gives evidence of the existence of a long run relationship when the aggregated Euro Area and six of the ten countries are considered. However, these relationships are highly instable since the outbreak of the financial crisis, leading in some cases to even rejecting cointegration. All this suggests that the ECB’s strategy of focusing in the M3 monetary aggregates could not be a convenient approach under the current circumstances

The long road of climate negotiations: From Kyoto to Paris stopping over in Doha

4 p.

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006

This paper has been presented at the XIII Encuentros de Economía Aplicada, Sevilla, Spain, 2010.

Lowndes and Locke on the value of money

This paper was presented at the 11th Annual Conference of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought (ESHET).

Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money

This paper analyzes the existence of an inflation tax Laffer curve (ITLC) in the context of two standard optimizing monetary models: a cash-in-advance model and a money in the utility function model. Agents’ preferences are characterized in the two models by a constant relative risk aversion utility function. Explosive hyperinflation rules out the presence of an ITLC. In the context of a cash-in-advance economy, this paper shows that explosive hyperinflation is feasible and thus an ITLC is ruled out whenever the relative risk aversion parameter is greater than one. In the context of an optimizing model with money in the utility function, this paper firstly shows that an ITLC is ruled out. Moreover, it is shown that explosive hyperinflations are more likely when the transactions role of money is more important. However, hyperinflationary paths are not feasible in this context unless certain restrictions are imposed.

Las contribuciones vascas a la Hacienda Real en la Edad Moderna: Algunos contrastes provinciales

[ES]Este artículo tiene un doble objetivo. E1 primero, ofrecer una panorámica general sobre las contribuciones fiscales de las Provincias Vascas a la Corona durante el Antiguo Régimen,resaltando las diferencias que en ese orden existían entre las tres.El segundo,situar las demandas fiscales regias en el origen de las haciendas provinciales vascas,estableciendo los distintos ritmos que se siguieron en su conformación entre los siglos XVII y XVIII, hasta alcanzar una mayor homologación ya en 1a centuria siguiente.

Discursos forales y fiscalidad real. Las provincias vascas ante el "crecimiento" de la sal de 1631

[ES]La sustitución de los millones por el crecimiento en el precio de la sal que Felipe IV estableció en 1631 provocó reacciones generalizadas en toda Castilla, y en particular entre las provincias que se hallaban exentas de pagarlos. Son conocidos los violentos disturbios de Vizcaya. En cambio, poco se sabe acerca de lo sucedido en las otras dos Provincias Exentas. El presente artículo analiza, en conjunto, la actitud que tanto Vizcaya como Guipúzcoa y Álava adoptaron ante el nuevo impuesto. Aunque las tres coincidieron en rechazarlo, lo hicieron mediante discursos y métodos bien diferentes. No en vano, lejos de lo que suele pensarse no gozaban de una plena equiparación fiscal ni jurídica.

Dialog Systems based on Markov decision processes over two real tasks

In this work the state of the art of the automatic dialogue strategy management using Markov decision processes (MDP) with reinforcement learning (RL) is described. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) are also described. To test the validity of these methods, two spoken dialogue systems have been developed. The first one is a spoken dialogue system for weather forecast providing, and the second one is a more complex system for train information. With the first system, comparisons between a rule-based system and an automatically trained system have been done, using a real corpus to train the automatic strategy. In the second system, the scalability of these methods when used in larger systems has been tested.

Un proyecto de empresa pública en Guipúzcoa: la Real Fábrica de anclas de Rentería

Las Reales Fábricas no fueron originales ni exclusivas de España, sino que los diferentes estados europeos promovieron la creación y establecimiento de estas industrias públicas, a imitación y semejanza de las Manufactures Royales francesas creadas por Colbert en la segunda mitada del siglo XVII. El proyecto de crear una Real Fábrica de anclas en Guipuzcoa se inscribe dentro de la política del Despotismo Ilustrado y de las disposiciones borbónicas encaminadas a instaurar una Marina moderna y de gran alcance.

Community structure in real-world networks from a non-parametrical synchronization-based dynamical approach

[EN]This work analyzes the problem of community structure in real-world networks based on the synchronization of nonidentical coupled chaotic Rössler oscillators each one characterized by a defined natural frequency, and coupled according to a predefined network topology. The interaction scheme contemplates an uniformly increasing coupling force to simulate a society in which the association between the agents grows in time. To enhance the stability of the correlated states that could emerge from the synchronization process, we propose a parameterless mechanism that adapts the characteristic frequencies of coupled oscillators according to a dynamic connectivity matrix deduced from correlated data. We show that the characteristic frequency vector that results from the adaptation mechanism reveals the underlying community structure present in the network.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Sliding mode position control for real-time control of induction motors

A sliding mode position control for high-performance real-time applications of induction motors in developed in this work. The design also incorporates a simple flux estimator in order to avoid the flux sensors. Then, the proposed control scheme presents a low computational cost and therefore can be implemented easily in a real-time applications using a low cost DSP-processor. The stability analysis of the controller under parameter uncertainties and load disturbances in provided using Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, simulated and experimental results show that the proposed controller with the proposed observer provides a good trajectory tracking and that this scheme is robust with respect to plant parameter variations and external load disturbances.

Telemonitorización en tiempo real del Síndrome de Apneas-Hipopneas del Sueño (SAHS) mediante pulsioximetría domiciliaria

191 p.

La formación de las élites ilustradas vascas: el Real Seminario de Vergara (1776-1804).

657 p.