Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Construcción de un modelo predictivo de tipo Gradient boosting para ventas online

En este proyecto se describirá como construir un modelo predictivo de tipo gradient boosting para predecir el número de ventas online de un producto X del cual solo sabremos su número de identificación, teniendo en cuenta las campañas publicitarias y las características tanto cualitativas y cuantitativas de éste. Para ello se utilizarán y se explicarán las diferentes técnicas utilizadas, como son: la técnica de la validación cruzada y el Blending. El objetivo del proyecto es implementar el modelo así como explicar con exactitud cada técnica y herramienta utilizada y obtener un resultado válido para la competición propuesta en Kaggle con el nombre de Online Product Sales.

Microwave Resonant and Zero-Field Absorption Study of Doped Magnetite Prepared by a Co-Precipitation Method

Fe3O4 and ZnxFe3-xO4 pure and doped magnetite magnetic nanoparticles (NPs) were prepared in aqueous solution (Series A) or in a water-ethyl alcohol mixture (Series B) by the co-precipitation method. Only one ferromagnetic resonance line was observed in all cases under consideration indicating that the materials are magnetically uniform. The shortfall in the resonance fields from 3.27 kOe (for the frequency of 9.5 GHz) expected for spheres can be understood taking into account the dipolar forces, magnetoelasticity, or magnetocrystalline anisotropy. All samples show non-zero low field absorption. For Series A samples the grain size decreases with an increase of the Zn content. In this case zero field absorption does not correlate with the changes of the grain size. For Series B samples the grain size and zero field absorption behavior correlate with each other. The highest zero-field absorption corresponded to 0.2 zinc concentration in both A and B series. High zero-field absorption of Fe3O4 ferrite magnetic NPs can be interesting for biomedical applications.

Photosynthetic responses of trees in high-elevation forests: comparing evergreen species along an elevation gradient in the Central Andes

Plant growth at extremely high elevations is constrained by high daily thermal amplitude, strong solar radiation and water scarcity. These conditions are particularly harsh in the tropics, where the highest elevation treelines occur. In this environment, the maintenance of a positive carbon balance involves protecting the photosynthetic apparatus and taking advantage of any climatically favourable periods. To characterize photoprotective mechanisms at such high elevations, and particularly to address the question of whether these mechanisms are the same as those previously described in woody plants along extratropical treelines, we have studied photosynthetic responses in Polylepis tarapacana Philippi in the central Andes (18 degrees S) along an elevational gradient from 4300 to 4900 m. For comparative purposes, this gradient has been complemented with a lower elevation site (3700 m) where another Polylepis species (P. rugulosa Bitter) occurs. During the daily cycle, two periods of photosynthetic activity were observed: one during the morning when, despite low temperatures, assimilation was high; and the second starting at noon when the stomata closed because of a rise in the vapour pressure deficit and thermal dissipation is prevalent over photosynthesis. From dawn to noon there was a decrease in the content of antenna pigments (chlorophyll b and neoxanthin), together with an increase in the content of xanthophyll cycle carotenoids. These results could be caused by a reduction in the antenna size along with an increase in photoprotection. Additionally, photoprotection was enhanced by a partial overnight retention of de-epoxized xanthophylls. The unique combination of all of these mechanisms made possible the efficient use of the favourable conditions during the morning while still providing enough protection for the rest of the day. This strategy differs completely from that of extratropical mountain trees, which uncouple light-harvesting and energy-use during long periods of unfavourable, winter conditions.