From bilateral two-way to unilateral one-way flow link-formation

Documento de trabajo

Asymmetric flow networks

This paper provides a new model of network formation that bridges the gap between the two benchmark models by Bala and Goyal, the one-way flow model, and the two-way flow model, and includes both as particular extreme cases. As in both benchmark models, in what we call an "asymmetric flow" network a link can be initiated unilaterally by any player with any other, and the flow through a link towards the player who supports it is perfect. Unlike those models, in the opposite direction there is friction or decay. When this decay is complete there is no flow and this corresponds to the one-way flow model. The limit case when the decay in the opposite direction (and asymmetry) disappears, corresponds to the two-way flow model. We characterize stable and strictly stable architectures for the whole range of parameters of this "intermediate" and more general model. We also prove the convergence of Bala and Goyal's dynamic model in this context.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

Risk management for mathematical optimization under uncertainty

We present a general multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 problem where the uncertainty appears everywhere in the objective function, constraints matrix and right-hand-side. The uncertainty is represented by a scenario tree that can be a symmetric or a nonsymmetric one. The stochastic model is converted in a mixed 0-1 Deterministic Equivalent Model in compact representation. Due to the difficulty of the problem, the solution offered by the stochastic model has been traditionally obtained by optimizing the objective function expected value (i.e., mean) over the scenarios, usually, along a time horizon. This approach (so named risk neutral) has the inconvenience of providing a solution that ignores the variance of the objective value of the scenarios and, so, the occurrence of scenarios with an objective value below the expected one. Alternatively, we present several approaches for risk averse management, namely, a scenario immunization strategy, the optimization of the well known Value-at-Risk (VaR) and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk strategies, the optimization of the expected mean minus the weighted probability of having a "bad" scenario to occur for the given solution provided by the model, the optimization of the objective function expected value subject to stochastic dominance constraints (SDC) for a set of profiles given by the pairs of threshold objective values and either bounds on the probability of not reaching the thresholds or the expected shortfall over them, and the optimization of a mixture of the VaR and SDC strategies.

Effects of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in Germany on European Electricity Exchange and Welfare

28 p.

In Vitro Surfactant and Perfluorocarbon Aerosol Deposition in a Neonatal Physical Model of the Upper Conducting Airways

Objective: Aerosol delivery holds potential to release surfactant or perfluorocarbon (PFC) to the lungs of neonates with respiratory distress syndrome with minimal airway manipulation. Nevertheless, lung deposition in neonates tends to be very low due to extremely low lung volumes, narrow airways and high respiratory rates. In the present study, the feasibility of enhancing lung deposition by intracorporeal delivery of aerosols was investigated using a physical model of neonatal conducting airways. Methods: The main characteristics of the surfactant and PFC aerosols produced by a nebulization system, including the distal air pressure and air flow rate, liquid flow rate and mass median aerodynamic diameter (MMAD), were measured at different driving pressures (4-7 bar). Then, a three-dimensional model of the upper conducting airways of a neonate was manufactured by rapid prototyping and a deposition study was conducted. Results: The nebulization system produced relatively large amounts of aerosol ranging between 0.3 +/- 0.0 ml/min for surfactant at a driving pressure of 4 bar, and 2.0 +/- 0.1 ml/min for distilled water (H(2)Od) at 6 bar, with MMADs between 2.61 +/- 0.1 mu m for PFD at 7 bar and 10.18 +/- 0.4 mu m for FC-75 at 6 bar. The deposition study showed that for surfactant and H(2)Od aerosols, the highest percentage of the aerosolized mass (similar to 65%) was collected beyond the third generation of branching in the airway model. The use of this delivery system in combination with continuous positive airway pressure set at 5 cmH(2)O only increased total airway pressure by 1.59 cmH(2)O at the highest driving pressure (7 bar). Conclusion: This aerosol generating system has the potential to deliver relatively large amounts of surfactant and PFC beyond the third generation of branching in a neonatal airway model with minimal alteration of pre-set respiratory support.