How central are clients in sexual networks created by commercial sex?

Sex workers are traditionally considered important vectors of transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI). The role of clients is commonly overlooked, partially due to the lack of evidence on clients' position in the sexual network created by commercial sex. Contrasting the diffusion importance of sex workers and their clients in the map of their sexual encounters in two Web-mediated communities, we find that from diffusion perspective, clients are as important as sex workers. Their diffusion importance is closely linked to the geography of the sexual encounters: as a result of different movement patterns, travelling clients shorten network distances between distant network neighborhoods and thus facilitate contagion among them more than sex workers, and find themselves more often in the core of the network by which they could contribute to the persistence of STIs in the community. These findings position clients into the set of the key actors and highlight the role of human mobility in the transmission of STIs in commercial sexual networks.

Physiological modules for generating discrete and rhythmic movements: action identification by a dynamic recurrent neural network

In this study we employed a dynamic recurrent neural network (DRNN) in a novel fashion to reveal characteristics of control modules underlying the generation of muscle activations when drawing figures with the outstretched arm. We asked healthy human subjects to perform four different figure-eight movements in each of two workspaces (frontal plane and sagittal plane). We then trained a DRNN to predict the movement of the wrist from information in the EMG signals from seven different muscles. We trained different instances of the same network on a single movement direction, on all four movement directions in a single movement plane, or on all eight possible movement patterns and looked at the ability of the DRNN to generalize and predict movements for trials that were not included in the training set. Within a single movement plane, a DRNN trained on one movement direction was not able to predict movements of the hand for trials in the other three directions, but a DRNN trained simultaneously on all four movement directions could generalize across movement directions within the same plane. Similarly, the DRNN was able to reproduce the kinematics of the hand for both movement planes, but only if it was trained on examples performed in each one. As we will discuss, these results indicate that there are important dynamical constraints on the mapping of EMG to hand movement that depend on both the time sequence of the movement and on the anatomical constraints of the musculoskeletal system. In a second step, we injected EMG signals constructed from different synergies derived by the PCA in order to identify the mechanical significance of each of these components. From these results, one can surmise that discrete-rhythmic movements may be constructed from three different fundamental modules, one regulating the co-activation of all muscles over the time span of the movement and two others elliciting patterns of reciprocal activation operating in orthogonal directions.

Patterns of Impact Resulting from a 'Sit Less, Move More' Web-Based Program in Sedentary Office Employees

Purpose Encouraging office workers to 'sit less and move more' encompasses two public health priorities. However, there is little evidence on the effectiveness of workplace interventions for reducing sitting, even less about the longer term effects of such interventions and still less on dual-focused interventions. This study assessed the short and mid-term impacts of a workplace web-based intervention (Walk@WorkSpain, W@WS; 2010-11) on self-reported sitting time, step counts and physical risk factors (waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure) for chronic disease. Methods Employees at six Spanish university campuses (n=264; 42 +/- 10 years; 171 female) were randomly assigned by worksite and campus to an Intervention (used W@WS; n=129; 87 female) or a Comparison group (maintained normal behavior; n=135; 84 female). This phased, 19-week program aimed to decrease occupational sitting time through increased incidental movement and short walks. A linear mixed model assessed changes in outcome measures between the baseline, ramping (8 weeks), maintenance (11 weeks) and follow-up (two months) phases for Intervention versus Comparison groups. Results A significant 2 (group) x 2 (program phases) interaction was found for self-reported occupational sitting (F[3]=7.97, p=0.046), daily step counts (F[3]=15.68, p=0.0013) and waist circumference (F[3]=11.67, p=0.0086). The Intervention group decreased minutes of daily occupational sitting while also increasing step counts from baseline (446 +/- 126; 8,862 +/- 2,475) through ramping (+425 +/- 120; 9,345 +/- 2,435), maintenance (+422 +/- 123; 9,638 +/- 3,131) and follow-up (+414 +/- 129; 9,786 +/- 3,205). In the Comparison group, compared to baseline (404 +/- 106), sitting time remained unchanged through ramping and maintenance, but decreased at follow-up (-388 +/- 120), while step counts diminished across all phases. The Intervention group significantly reduced waist circumference by 2.1cms from baseline to follow-up while the Comparison group reduced waist circumference by 1.3cms over the same period. Conclusions W@WSis a feasible and effective evidence-based intervention that can be successfully deployed with sedentary employees to elicit sustained changes on "sitting less and moving more".

New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Variability in the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay, as observed by HF radar data

Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009-2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett-Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind-current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind-current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes.

Spinal circuits can accommodate interaction torques during multijoint limb movements

The dynamic interaction of limb segments during movements that involve multiple joints creates torques in one joint due to motion about another. Evidence shows that such interaction torques are taken into account during the planning or control of movement in humans. Two alternative hypotheses could explain the compensation of these dynamic torques. One involves the use of internal models to centrally compute predicted interaction torques and their explicit compensation through anticipatory adjustment of descending motor commands. The alternative, based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis, claims that descending signals can be simple and related to the desired movement kinematics only, while spinal feedback mechanisms are responsible for the appropriate creation and coordination of dynamic muscle forces. Partial supporting evidence exists in each case. However, until now no model has explicitly shown, in the case of the second hypothesis, whether peripheral feedback is really sufficient on its own for coordinating the motion of several joints while at the same time accommodating intersegmental interaction torques. Here we propose a minimal computational model to examine this question. Using a biomechanics simulation of a two-joint arm controlled by spinal neural circuitry, we show for the first time that it is indeed possible for the neuromusculoskeletal system to transform simple descending control signals into muscle activation patterns that accommodate interaction forces depending on their direction and magnitude. This is achieved without the aid of any central predictive signal. Even though the model makes various simplifications and abstractions compared to the complexities involved in the control of human arm movements, the finding lends plausibility to the hypothesis that some multijoint movements can in principle be controlled even in the absence of internal models of intersegmental dynamics or learned compensatory motor signals.

Molecular ecology of european mustelids: Unraveling evolutionary and ecological patterns in Martes and Lutra genera

208 p.

Modeling habits as self-sustaining patterns of sensorimotor behavior

In the recent history of psychology and cognitive neuroscience, the notion of habit has been reduced to a stimulus-triggered response probability correlation. In this paper we use a computational model to present an alternative theoretical view (with some philosophical implications), where habits are seen as self-maintaining patterns of behavior that share properties in common with self-maintaining biological processes, and that inhabit a complex ecological context, including the presence and influence of other habits. Far from mechanical automatisms, this organismic and self-organizing concept of habit can overcome the dominating atomistic and statistical conceptions, and the high temporal resolution effects of situatedness, embodiment and sensorimotor loops emerge as playing a more central, subtle and complex role in the organization of behavior. The model is based on a novel "iterant deformable sensorimotor medium (IDSM)," designed such that trajectories taken through sensorimotor-space increase the likelihood that in the future, similar trajectories will be taken. We couple the IDSM to sensors and motors of a simulated robot, and show that under certain conditions, the IDSM conditions, the IDSM forms self-maintaining patterns of activity that operate across the IDSM, the robot's body, and the environment. We present various environments and the resulting habits that form in them. The model acts as an abstraction of habits at a much needed sensorimotor "meso-scale" between microscopic neuron-based models and macroscopic descriptions of behavior. Finally, we discuss how this model and extensions of it can help us understand aspects of behavioral self-organization, historicity and autonomy that remain out of the scope of contemporary representationalist frameworks.

Physiological modules for generating discrete and rhythmic movements: Component analysis of EMG signals

A central question in Neuroscience is that of how the nervous system generates the spatiotemporal commands needed to realize complex gestures, such as handwriting. A key postulate is that the central nervous system (CNS) builds up complex movements from a set of simpler motor primitives or control modules. In this study we examined the control modules underlying the generation of muscle activations when performing different types of movement: discrete, point-to-point movements in eight different directions and continuous figure-eight movements in both the normal, upright orientation and rotated 90 degrees. To test for the effects of biomechanical constraints, movements were performed in the frontal-parallel or sagittal planes, corresponding to two different nominal flexion/abduction postures of the shoulder. In all cases we measured limb kinematics and surface electromyographic activity (EMB) signals for seven different muscles acting around the shoulder. We first performed principal component analysis (PCA) of the EMG signals on a movement-by-movement basis. We found a surprisingly consistent pattern of muscle groupings across movement types and movement planes, although we could detect systematic differences between the PCs derived from movements performed in each sholder posture and between the principal components associated with the different orientations of the figure. Unexpectedly we found no systematic differences between the figute eights and the point-to-point movements. The first three principal components could be associated with a general co-contraction of all seven muscles plus two patterns of reciprocal activatoin. From these results, we surmise that both "discrete-rhythmic movements" such as the figure eight, and discrete point-to-point movement may be constructed from three different fundamental modules, one regulating the impedance of the limb over the time span of the movement and two others operating to generate movement, one aligned with the vertical and the other aligned with the horizontal.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Patterns of genetic variation in the endangered European mink (Mustela lutreola L., 1761)

Background: The European mink (Mustela lutreola, L. 1761) is a critically endangered mustelid, which inhabits several main river drainages in Europe. Here, we assess the genetic variation of existing populations of this species, including new sampling sites and additional molecular markers (newly developed microsatellite loci specific to European mink) as compared to previous studies. Probabilistic analyses were used to examine genetic structure within and between existing populations, and to infer phylogeographic processes and past demography. Results: According to both mitochondrial and nuclear microsatellite markers, Northeastern (Russia, Estonia and Belarus) and Southeastern (Romania) European populations showed the highest intraspecific diversity. In contrast, Western European (France and Spain) populations were the least polymorphic, featuring a unique mitochondrial DNA haplotype. The high differentiation values detected between Eastern and Western European populations could be the result of genetic drift in the latter due to population isolation and reduction. Genetic differences among populations were further supported by Bayesian clustering and two main groups were confirmed (Eastern vs. Western Europe) along with two contained subgroups at a more local scale (Northeastern vs. Southeastern Europe; France vs. Spain). Conclusions: Genetic data and performed analyses support a historical scenario of stable European mink populations, not affected by Quaternary climate oscillations in the Late Pleistocene, and posterior expansion events following river connections in both North-and Southeastern European populations. This suggests an eastern refuge during glacial maxima (as already proposed for boreal and continental species). In contrast, Western Europe was colonised more recently following either natural expansions or putative human introductions. Low levels of genetic diversity observed within each studied population suggest recent bottleneck events and stress the urgent need for conservation measures to counteract the demographic decline experienced by the European mink.

Can environmental constraints determine random patterns of plant species co-occurrence?

Plant community ecologists use the null model approach to infer assembly processes from observed patterns of species co-occurrence. In about a third of published studies, the null hypothesis of random assembly cannot be rejected. When this occurs, plant ecologists interpret that the observed random pattern is not environmentally constrained - but probably generated by stochastic processes. The null model approach (using the C-score and the discrepancy index) was used to test for random assembly under two simulation algorithms. Logistic regression, distance-based redundancy analysis, and constrained ordination were used to test for environmental determinism (species segregation along environmental gradients or turnover and species aggregation). This article introduces an environmentally determined community of alpine hydrophytes that presents itself as randomly assembled. The pathway through which the random pattern arises in this community is suggested to be as follows: Two simultaneous environmental processes, one leading to species aggregation and the other leading to species segregation, concurrently generate the observed pattern, which results to be neither aggregated nor segregated - but random. A simulation study supports this suggestion. Although apparently simple, the null model approach seems to assume that a single ecological factor prevails or that if several factors decisively influence the community, then they all exert their influence in the same direction, generating either aggregation or segregation. As these assumptions are unlikely to hold in most cases and assembly processes cannot be inferred from random patterns, we would like to propose plant ecologists to investigate specifically the ecological processes responsible for observed random patterns, instead of trying to infer processes from patterns