New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Landa-garapen politika eta ingurumenarekiko harremana Euskal Autonomia Erkidegoan (1992-2008)

[EUS] Landa-garapeneko politikek, eremu horietako ohiko jardueren sustapena eta berregituratze sozioekonomikoa bultzatzeaz gain, lurralde-antolaketa zein ingurumen-esparru gero eta garrantzitsuagoak barneratu dituzte beren proposamenetan. Artikulu honek horixe aztertzen du, zein izan den landa-garapen politikaren ingurumentze prozesua Euskal Autonomia Erkidegoan, alegia. Basogintza eta nekazaritza-ingurumen neurriez gain, prozesu honetan arreta berezia merezi du Natura Eremu Babestuen politikak, zeina neurri handian landa-garapenekoarekin uztartu egiten den funtzionalki zein kronologikoki.

Some experiments on solving multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 programs with time stochastic dominance constraints

In this work we extend to the multistage case two recent risk averse measures for two-stage stochastic programs based on first- and second-order stochastic dominance constraints induced by mixed-integer linear recourse. Additionally, we consider Time Stochastic Dominance (TSD) along a given horizon. Given the dimensions of medium-sized problems augmented by the new variables and constraints required by those risk measures, it is unrealistic to solve the problem up to optimality by plain use of MIP solvers in a reasonable computing time, at least. Instead of it, decomposition algorithms of some type should be used. We present an extension of our Branch-and-Fix Coordination algorithm, so named BFC-TSD, where a special treatment is given to cross scenario group constraints that link variables from different scenario groups. A broad computational experience is presented by comparing the risk neutral approach and the tested risk averse strategies. The performance of the new version of the BFC algorithm versus the plain use of a state-of-the-artMIP solver is also reported.

Descripción de empresas en crisis financiera: el caso de Argentina en las décadas del 1990 y 2000

[ES]Las investigaciones sobre la predicción de quiebras empresariales que se han venido dando en los últimos cincuenta años han indicado que la crisis financiera de las empresas ha sido y es un tema de preocupación en el mundo, también en Argentina. El horizonte de análisis de este trabajo comprende dos períodos de estabilidad económica en la década de 1990 y la del 2000, con la intención de comparar los indicadores financieros que explican la crisis empresarial en cada uno de ellos. De esta manera, se procura continuar con el aporte de evidencia empírica en esta línea de investigación, mediante el análisis de los indicadores, que según la literatura, influyen en el pronóstico de riesgo de crisis financiera. Estos estudios descriptivos previos a los inferenciales pueden ser replicados en otras economías emergentes, como herramienta de diagnostico de la vulnerabilidad financiera de las empresas.

Analysis and evaluation of public health policy in Cuba : progress on millennium development goals

[EN] The main objective of this project is to analyze Cuban public health policy and the Millennium Development Goals, especially those linked to the issue of health, presenting their potential and strengths with a well-defined time horizon (2000-2015). The Millennium Development Goals are the international consensus on development and was signed as an international minimum agreement, with which began the century. The MDGs promote various goals and targets, with the corresponding monitoring indicators, which should be achieved by all countries for the present year. Health is an area that is at the center of the Millennium Development Goals, which reinforce each other to get a true human development itself. The research was done through theoretical frameworks of social production of health and disease, social justice and the power structure. A retrospective analysis of Cuban economic and social context is performed in order to study whether health-related MDGs are likely to be completed by the deadline on the island and likewise, the main parameters related to health compared with those of the neighboring countries in the Americas.