Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Mantenimiento en el laboratorio del pez cebra

El pez cebra (Danio rerio) se utiliza como organismo modelo en distintos campos como la biomedicina o la toxicogenómica. Las ventajas que ofrece frente a otros modelos animales, hace que se haya convertido en los últimos años en uno de los organismos modelo más utilizado en experimentación. La similitud de su desarrollo embrionario con el de otros vertebrados superiores o la semejanza de su genoma con la del ser humano lo han colocado en el punto de mira de las principales investigaciones. Pero disponer de ejemplares óptimos tanto de embriones como de adultos para su utilización en investigación, requiere de unos cuidados y de una atención adecuada. Para su mantenimiento se deberán tener en cuenta el tipo de instalaciones para su cría, la calidad del agua donde se encuentran, la alimentación que reciben o los procesos de reproducción utilizados. El objetivo de este estudio ha sido elaborar un protocolo de mantenimiento del pez cebra, que optimice los cuidados necesarios para que el número de embriones viables sea máximo y también poder mantener un número de ejemplares adultos en buenas condiciones.

Performance of an Ocean Energy Conversion System with DFIG Sensorless Control

The 2009/28/EC Directive requires Member States of the European Union to adopt a National Action Plan for Renewable Energy. In this context, the Basque Energy Board, EVE, is committed to research activities such as the Mutriku Oscillating Water Column plant, OWC. This is an experimental facility whose concept consists of a turbine located in a pneumatic energy collection chamber and a doubly fed induction generator that converts energy extracted by the turbine into a form that can be returned to the network. The turbo-generator control requires a precise knowledge of system parameters and of the rotor angular velocity in particular. Thus, to remove the rotor speed sensor implies a simplification of the hardware that is always convenient in rough working conditions. In this particular case, a Luenberger based observer is considered and the effectiveness of the proposed control is shown by numerical simulations. Comparing these results with those obtained using a traditional speed sensor, it is shown that the proposed solution provides better performance since it increases power extraction in the sense that it allows a more reliable and robust performance of the plant, which is even more relevant in a hostile environment as the ocean.

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Prioritization of candidate cancer genes-an aid to oncogenomic studies

The development of techniques for oncogenomic analyses such as array comparative genomic hybridization, messenger RNA expression arrays and mutational screens have come to the fore in modern cancer research. Studies utilizing these techniques are able to highlight panels of genes that are altered in cancer. However, these candidate cancer genes must then be scrutinized to reveal whether they contribute to oncogenesis or are coincidental and non-causative. We present a computational method for the prioritization of candidate (i) proto-oncogenes and (ii) tumour suppressor genes from oncogenomic experiments. We constructed computational classifiers using different combinations of sequence and functional data including sequence conservation, protein domains and interactions, and regulatory data. We found that these classifiers are able to distinguish between known cancer genes and other human genes. Furthermore, the classifiers also discriminate candidate cancer genes from a recent mutational screen from other human genes. We provide a web-based facility through which cancer biologists may access our results and we propose computational cancer gene classification as a useful method of prioritizing candidate cancer genes identified in oncogenomic studies.

International Support of Climate Change Policies in Developing Countries: Strategic, Moral and Fairness Aspects

33 p.

Diseño del blindaje de una sala de radiografía.

[ES]Este trabajo trata sobre el diseño del blindaje de una sala de rayos X. Concretamente se ha centrado en el procedimiento para diseñar el blindaje de una sala de radiografías del tórax. Para ello, se ha tomado como punto de partida una posible sala de radiografía de un centro sanitario y se le han aplicado a este caso las pautas que se deben seguir a la hora de hacer estos cálculos con el objetivo de reducir las dosis de radiación recibidas por el personal de operación y asegurar el bienestar del paciente y de los trabajadores Primero y todo para situar en el tema expuesto se ha descrito el contexto, donde se hace un breve resumen del desarrollo que han tenido los rayos X en el ámbito de la medicina. A continuación en el apartado de alcance se han explicado los campos que se van a abarcar en este proyecto. Por último y para acabar la introducción se han escrito lo beneficios del proyecto y su importancia. Para empezar el proyecto se ha presentado la sala de radiografía torácica tomada como ejemplo y se le han hecho los cálculos pertinentes a sus paredes, puertas y ventanas. A continuación se ha expuesto el aspecto económico y de la distribución y para ello se ha realizado un presupuesto y el diagrama de Gantt. Por último se han escrito unas conclusiones generales sobre todo el proyecto.