An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Phosphorus substituted hydroxylamine and hydroxamic acid derivatives: synthesis and reactivity

Dedicated to Prof. Julio Alvarez-Builla on the occasion of his 65th anniversary.

Beta-Hydroxyimino Phosphorus Derivatives. An Efficient Tool in Organic Synthesis

[EN] The purpose of this review article is to illustrate synthetic aspects of functionalized phosphorus derivatives containing an oximo moiety at the beta-position. First section will be focused on the synthesis of phosphine oxides, phosphonates or phosphonium salts containing an oxime group. The synthesis of these derivatives comprises the carbon–phosphorus single bond construction by reaction of haloximes with phosphorus derivatives, nucleophilic addition of phosphorus reagents to carbonyl compounds, or nucleophilic addition of phosphorus reagents to nitro olefins. This section will also concentrate on the most practical routes for the synthesis of the target compounds, through carbon–nitrogen double bond formation, which are as follows: condensation processes of carbonyl compounds and hydroxylamine derivatives or addition of hydroxylamines to allenes or alkynes. The preparative use of beta-oximo phosphorus derivatives as synthetic intermediates will be discussed in a second section, comprising olefination reaction, oxidation of oximes to nitrile oxides by reaction at the C-N double bond of the oxime moiety, oxidation of these substrates to nitrosoalkenes, reduction to the corresponding hydroxylamines and some reactions at the hydroxyl group of the hydroxyimino moiety.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.