15 resultados para energy market

em Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación - Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad del País Vasco


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In July 2013, the government approved a major overhaul of the Spanish electricity sector to correct existing imbalances that have led to an exponential increase of regulated electricity costs and a huge tariff deficit. The reform addresses the problem of financial sustainability of the sector, severely affected by weak demand and overcapacity. Previous regulation introduced in 2012 and early 2013, also aimed at restoring financial stability of the sector, failed to correct the tariff shortfall and new regulatory measures were needed to reduce the 4.5 billion euros forecasted deficit for 2013. The frequent change of the rules of the game in the sector has created regulatory uncertainty, more so as it is not clear that the present reform will be sufficient to eliminate the deficit. Moreover, the government has left the door open to new regulation that would deal with the price formation system. In general, short run financial criteria have prevailed, while efficiency principles and a long run perspective have little weight in the reform.

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This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

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30 p.

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27 p.

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We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

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(English)The Swedish industrial sector has overcome the oil crisis and has maintained the energy use constant even though the production has grown. This has been achieved thanks to the development of several energy policies, by the Swedish government, towards the 2020 goals. This thesis carries on this path and performs an energy audit for an old industrial building in Gävle (Sweden) in order to propose different energy efficiency measures to use less energy while maintaining the thermal comfort. The building is in quite a bad shape and some of the areas are unused making them a waste of money. By means of the invoices provided by different companies, the information from the staff and some measures that have been carried out in-situ, the energy balance has been calculated from where conclusions have been drawn. Although it is an industrial building, the study is not going to be focused in the industrial process but in the building’s envelope and support processes, since the unit combines both production and office areas. Therefore, the energy balance is divided in energy supplies (district heating, free heating and sun irradiation) and energy losses (transmission, ventilation hot tap water and infiltrations). The results show that the most important supply is that of the DH whereas the most important losses are the transmission and infiltration. Thus, the measures proposed are focused on the reduction of this relevant parameters. The most important measures are the renovation of the windows, heating systems valves and the ventilation. The glazing of the dwelling is old and some of it is broken accounting for quite a large amount of the losses. The radiator valves are not properly working and there does not exist any temperature control. Therefore the installation of thermostatic valves turns out to be a must. Moreover, some part of the building has no mechanical ventilation but conserves the ducts. These could be utilized if they are connected to the workshop’s ventilation which is capable of generating sufficient flow for the entire building. Finally, although other measures could also be carried out, the ones proposed appear to be the essential ones. A further analysis should be carried out in order to analyze the payback time or investment capability of the company so as to decide between one measure or another. A market study for possible new tenants for the unused parts of the building is also advisable.