The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

A predictive model of the export behaviour of small and medium sized firms: an application to the case of Castilla-La Mancha

[EN] Based on an extensive theoretical review, the aim of this paper is to carry out a closer examination of the differences between exporters according to their commitment to the international market. Once the main disparities are identified by means of a non-parametric test, a logistic analysis based upon data collected from small and medium sized manufacturing firms is conducted in order to construct a classificatory model.

Emergent synchronisation properties of a refrigerator demand side management system

In order to analyse the possibilities of improving grid stability on island systems by local demand response mechanisms,a multi-agent simulation model is presented. To support the primary reserve, an under-frequency load shedding (UFLS)using refrigerator loads is modelled. The model represents the system at multiple scales, by recreating each refrigerator individually, and coupling the whole population of refrigerators to a model which simulates the frequency response of the energy system, allowing for cross-scale interactions. Using a simple UFLS strategy, emergent phenomena appear in the simulation. Synchronisation e ects among the individual loads were discovered, which can have strong, undesirable impacts on the system such as oscillations of loads and frequency. The phase transition from a stable to an oscillating system is discussed.