Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

La elección de la marca del distribuidor en productos duraderos: factores de influencia

[ES] La apuesta de la distribución por la extensión de su marca a las categorías de productos duraderos, como electrodomésticos y productos electrónicos para el hogar, ha demostrado ser acertada, a pesar de las críticas en contra de esta estrategia. Posiblemente, la mayor familiaridad del consumidor con las marcas del distribuidor, el cambio de actitud favorable hacia éstas, la disponibilidad de la tecnología, y por qué no, la crisis económica internacional que afecta a las economías domésticas, pueden ser factores explicativos de este éxito.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

A Note on Risk Acceptance, Bankruptcy Avoidance and Riskiness Measures

In this work we clarify the relationships between riskiness, risk acceptance and bankruptcy avoidance. We distinguish between the restriction on the current wealth required to make a gamble acceptable to the decision maker and the restriction on the current wealth required to guarantee no bankruptcy if a gamble is accepted. We focus on the measure of riskiness proposed by Foster and Hart.

Decarbonising urban transportation

18 p.