Smiling under stochastic volatility

This paper studies the behavior of the implied volatility function (smile) when the true distribution of the underlying asset is consistent with the stochastic volatility model proposed by Heston (1993). The main result of the paper is to extend previous results applicable to the smile as a whole to alternative degrees of moneyness. The conditions under which the implied volatility function changes whenever there is a change in the parameters associated with Hestons stochastic volatility model for a given degree of moneyness are given.

Autorregresive conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis

This paper proposes a GARCH-type model allowing for time-varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. The model is estimated assuming a Gram-Charlier series expansion of the normal density function for the error term, which is easier to estimate than the non-central t distribution proposed by Harvey and Siddique (1999). Moreover, this approach accounts for time-varying skewness and kurtosis while the approach by Harvey and Siddique (1999) only accounts for nonnormal skewness. We apply this method to daily returns of a variety of stock indices and exchange rates. Our results indicate a significant presence of conditional skewness and kurtosis. It is also found that specifications allowing for time-varying skewness and kurtosis outperform specifications with constant third and fourth moments.

Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets

This paper models the mean and volatility spillovers of prices within the integrated Iberian and the interconnected Spanish and French electricity markets. Using the constant (CCC) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate models with three different specifications of the univariate variance processes, we study the extent to which increasing interconnection and harmonization in regulation have favoured price convergence. The data consist of daily prices calculated as the arithmetic mean of the hourly prices over a span from July 1st 2007 until February 29th 2012. The DCC model in which the variances of the univariate processes are specified with a VARMA(1,1) fits the data best for the integrated MIBEL whereas a CCC model with a GARCH(1,1) specification for the univariate variance processes is selected to model the price series in Spain and France. Results show that there are significant mean and volatility spillovers in the MIBEL, indicating strong interdependence between the two markets, while there is a weaker evidence of integration between the Spanish and French markets. We provide new evidence that the EU target of achieving a single electricity market largely depends on increasing trade between countries and homogeneous rules of market functioning.

Long memory in return structures from developed markets

[En]The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the market efficiency hypothesis. It poses a serious challenge to the supporters of random walk behavior of the stock returns indicating a potentially predictable component in the series dynamics. We computed Hurst-Mandelbrot’s Classical R/S statistic, Lo’s statistic and semi parametric GPH statistic using spectral regression. The findings suggest existence of long memory in volatility and random walk for logarithmic return series in general for all the selected stock market indices. Findings are in line with the stylized facts of financial time series.

Physiological modules for generating discrete and rhythmic movements: Component analysis of EMG signals

A central question in Neuroscience is that of how the nervous system generates the spatiotemporal commands needed to realize complex gestures, such as handwriting. A key postulate is that the central nervous system (CNS) builds up complex movements from a set of simpler motor primitives or control modules. In this study we examined the control modules underlying the generation of muscle activations when performing different types of movement: discrete, point-to-point movements in eight different directions and continuous figure-eight movements in both the normal, upright orientation and rotated 90 degrees. To test for the effects of biomechanical constraints, movements were performed in the frontal-parallel or sagittal planes, corresponding to two different nominal flexion/abduction postures of the shoulder. In all cases we measured limb kinematics and surface electromyographic activity (EMB) signals for seven different muscles acting around the shoulder. We first performed principal component analysis (PCA) of the EMG signals on a movement-by-movement basis. We found a surprisingly consistent pattern of muscle groupings across movement types and movement planes, although we could detect systematic differences between the PCs derived from movements performed in each sholder posture and between the principal components associated with the different orientations of the figure. Unexpectedly we found no systematic differences between the figute eights and the point-to-point movements. The first three principal components could be associated with a general co-contraction of all seven muscles plus two patterns of reciprocal activatoin. From these results, we surmise that both "discrete-rhythmic movements" such as the figure eight, and discrete point-to-point movement may be constructed from three different fundamental modules, one regulating the impedance of the limb over the time span of the movement and two others operating to generate movement, one aligned with the vertical and the other aligned with the horizontal.

Effectiveness of a Multi-Component Smoking Cessation Support Programme (McSCSP) for Patients with Severe Mental Disorders: Study Design

Only a few studies have examined the efficacy and safety of smoking cessation programmes in patients with mental disorders. The aim of this paper is to describe in detail the methodology used in the study as well as the Multi-component Smoking Cessation Support Programme in terms of pharmacological treatments and psychological interventions. An open-label 9-month follow-up study was conducted in Spain. A total of 82 clinically stable outpatients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective or bipolar disorder were enrolled. Treatment consisted of a programme specifically developed by the research team for individuals with severe mental disorders. The programme consisted of two phases: (1) weekly individual motivational therapy for 4-12 weeks, and (2) a 12-week active treatment phase. During this phase, at each study visit patients received a one- or two-week supply of medication (transdermal nicotine patches, varenicline or bupropion) with instructions on how to take it, in addition to group psychotherapy for smoking cessation. Evaluations were performed: (1) at the time of enrolment in the study, (2) during the 12-week active treatment phase of the study (weekly for the first 4 weeks and then biweekly), and (3) after the end of this phase (two follow-up assessments at weeks 12 and 24). Evaluations included: (1) smoking history, (2) substance use, (3) psychopathology, (4) adverse events, and (5) laboratory tests. The importance of this study lies in addressing a topical issue often ignored by psychiatrists: the unacceptably high rates of tobacco use in patients with severe mental disorders.