Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU

36 p.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.

Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector

23 p.

Compliance verification methodology for renewable generation integration. Application to island power grids

261 p.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Gasificación de biomasa con astillas de madera.

[ES]Este proyecto tiene como objetivo generar energía eléctrica y térmica para un conjunto de viviendas aisladas, sin acceso a la red eléctrica, con una potencia requerida de 12KW. Se pretende plantear una solución que satisfaga las necesidades básicas de auto-abastecimiento de una forma económicamente rentable. Para comenzar, por un lado de cara al objetivo 20/20/20 se realizará un acercamiento a la utilización de las energías renovables como fuente de energía, disminuyendo así el impacto ambiental. Por otro lado, se plantearán diferentes alternativas para la generación de energía eléctrica y térmica, finalmente haciendo hincapié en el estudio de una planta de gasificación de biomasa mediante astillas de madera. De modo que, a lo largo de este documento se analizarán los principios y fundamentos necesarios para el diseño de una planta de generación eléctrica mediante gasificación de biomasa. Para ello se estudiarán los diferentes modelos de gasificadores existentes, el desarrollo del proceso de gasificación con sus respectivas etapas y la limpieza y adaptación del gas obtenido antes de introducirlo en el MACI. Se realizará una descripción de la planta junto al dimensionamiento tanto del almacenamiento de la materia prima como el de los equipos a instalar. Finalmente, para valorar si se trata de un proyecto viable. Se realizará el estudio económico analizando el presupuesto y análisis de rentabilidad. Asimismo, se plantearán los diferentes riesgos a los que puede exponerse una instalación como esta.

Evaluación de dosis de radiación producida por una pérdida de refrigerante en reactor nuclear.

EN]This is a document done to try to see the effect of a nuclear power plant accident. In particular, it studies what would be the radiation doses delivered to the people in the close areas around the power plant of Garoña, if it had suffered from a loss of coolant accident during its normal functioning.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

An adaptive sliding mode control law for the power maximization of the wind turbine system

POWERENG 2011