The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Mugilid Fish Are Sentinels of Exposure to Endocrine Disrupting Compounds in Coastal and Estuarine Environments

Effects on fish reproduction can result from a variety of toxicity mechanisms first operating at the molecular level. Notably, the presence in the environment of some compounds termed endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) can cause adverse effects on reproduction by interfering with the endocrine system. In some cases, exposure to EDCs leads to the animal feminization and male fish may develop oocytes in testis (intersex condition). Mugilid fish are well suited sentinel organisms to study the effects of reproductive EDCs in the monitoring of estuarine/marine environments. Up-regulation of aromatases and vitellogenins in males and juveniles and the presence of intersex individuals have been described in a wide array of mullet species worldwide. There is a need to develop new molecular markers to identify early feminization responses and intersex condition in fish populations, studying mechanisms that regulate gonad differentiation under exposure to xenoestrogens. Interestingly, an electrophoresis of gonad RNA, shows a strong expression of 5S rRNA in oocytes, indicating the potential of 5S rRNA and its regulating proteins to become useful molecular makers of oocyte presence in testis. Therefore, the use of these oocyte markers to sex and identify intersex mullets could constitute powerful molecular biomarkers to assess xenoestrogenicity in field conditions.

Humanism after the Spanish Civil War: Gernika (1945-53), a Humanities and Social Sciencesbasque magazine

Espainiako Gerra Zibilaren eta II. Mundu Gerrarren ostean Gerra Hotza heldu zen. Testuinguru larri horretan humanismoan ikusi zuten hainbatek zibilizazio-krisiari irtenbidea topatzeko bidea. Gernika aldizkariak (1945-53) bere burua humanistatzat zeukan. Bertako idazleek gai horren inguruan zer adierazi zuten jasotzen saiatu gara, euskarazko zein erdarazko artikuluetan agertzen diren iritziak sailkatuz.

Analysis of multivariate stochastic signals sampled by on-line particle analyzers: Application to the quantitative assessment of occupational exposure to NOAA in multisource industrial scenarios (MSIS)

In multisource industrial scenarios (MSIS) coexist NOAA generating activities with other productive sources of airborne particles, such as parallel processes of manufacturing or electrical and diesel machinery. A distinctive characteristic of MSIS is the spatially complex distribution of aerosol sources, as well as their potential differences in dynamics, due to the feasibility of multi-task configuration at a given time. Thus, the background signal is expected to challenge the aerosol analyzers at a probably wide range of concentrations and size distributions, depending of the multisource configuration at a given time. Monitoring and prediction by using statistical analysis of time series captured by on-line particle analyzers in industrial scenarios, have been proven to be feasible in predicting PNC evolution provided a given quality of net signals (difference between signal at source and background). However the analysis and modelling of non-consistent time series, influenced by low levels of SNR (Signal-Noise Ratio) could build a misleading basis for decision making. In this context, this work explores the use of stochastic models based on ARIMA methodology to monitor and predict exposure values (PNC). The study was carried out in a MSIS where an case study focused on the manufacture of perforated tablets of nano-TiO2 by cold pressing was performed

Occupational exposure to nano-TiO2 in the life cycle steps of new depollutant mortars used in construction

The present work is focused on the measurement of workers exposure to nano-TiO2 in the life cycle steps of depollutant mortars. It has been done in the framework of the SCAFFOLD project, which aims at the management of potential risks arising from the use of manufactured nanomaterials in construction. Main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) The occupational exposure to nano-TiO2 is below 0.3 mg/m(3) for all measured scenarios. The highest concentrations were measured during the cleaning task (in the nano-TiO2 manufacturing process) and during the application (spraying) of depollutant coatings on a wall. (2) It was found a high release of particles above the background in several tasks as expected due to the nature of the activities performed. The maximum concentration was measured during drilling and during adding powder materials (mean total particle concentration up to 5.591E+04 particles/cm(3) and 5.69E+04 particles/cm(3)). However, considering data on total particle concentration released, no striking differences have been observed when tasks have been performed using conventional materials in the sector (control) and when using materials doped with nano-objects.