Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Running Pace Decrease during a Marathon Is Positively Related to Blood Markers of Muscle Damage

Background: Completing a marathon is one of the most challenging sports activities, yet the source of running fatigue during this event is not completely understood. The aim of this investigation was to determine the cause(s) of running fatigue during a marathon in warm weather. Methodology/Principal Findings: We recruited 40 amateur runners (34 men and 6 women) for the study. Before the race, body core temperature, body mass, leg muscle power output during a countermovement jump, and blood samples were obtained. During the marathon (27 uC; 27% relative humidity) running fatigue was measured as the pace reduction from the first 5-km to the end of the race. Within 3 min after the marathon, the same pre-exercise variables were obtained. Results: Marathoners reduced their running pace from 3.5 6 0.4 m/s after 5-km to 2.9 6 0.6 m/s at the end of the race (P,0.05), although the running fatigue experienced by the marathoners was uneven. Marathoners with greater running fatigue (. 15% pace reduction) had elevated post-race myoglobin (1318 6 1411 v 623 6 391 mg L21; P,0.05), lactate dehydrogenase (687 6 151 v 583 6 117 U L21; P,0.05), and creatine kinase (564 6 469 v 363 6 158 U L21; P = 0.07) in comparison with marathoners that preserved their running pace reasonably well throughout the race. However, they did not differ in their body mass change (23.1 6 1.0 v 23.0 6 1.0%; P = 0.60) or post-race body temperature (38.7 6 0.7 v 38.9 6 0.9 uC; P = 0.35). Conclusions/Significance: Running pace decline during a marathon was positively related with muscle breakdown blood markers. To elucidate if muscle damage during a marathon is related to mechanistic or metabolic factors requires further investigation.

Sampling and learning the Mallows and Generalized Mallows models under the Cayley distance

[EN]The Mallows and Generalized Mallows models are compact yet powerful and natural ways of representing a probability distribution over the space of permutations. In this paper we deal with the problems of sampling and learning (estimating) such distributions when the metric on permutations is the Cayley distance. We propose new methods for both operations, whose performance is shown through several experiments. We also introduce novel procedures to count and randomly generate permutations at a given Cayley distance both with and without certain structural restrictions. An application in the field of biology is given to motivate the interest of this model.

Sampling and learning the Mallows and Weighted Mallows models under the Hamming distance

[EN]In this paper we deal with distributions over permutation spaces. The Mallows model is the mode l in use. The associated distance for permutations is the Hamming distance.

Sampling and learning the Mallows model under the Ulam distance

[EN]In this paper we deal with probability distributions over permutation spaces. The Probability model in use is the Mallows model. The distance for permutations that the model uses in the Ulam distance.

Dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes Causing Acute Otitis Media Isolated from Children with Spontaneous Middle-Ear Drainage over a 12-Year Period (1999–2010) in a Region of Northern Spain

10 p.

Extending Distance-based Ranking Models In Estimation of Distribution Algorithms

Recently, probability models on rankings have been proposed in the field of estimation of distribution algorithms in order to solve permutation-based combinatorial optimisation problems. Particularly, distance-based ranking models, such as Mallows and Generalized Mallows under the Kendall’s-t distance, have demonstrated their validity when solving this type of problems. Nevertheless, there are still many trends that deserve further study. In this paper, we extend the use of distance-based ranking models in the framework of EDAs by introducing new distance metrics such as Cayley and Ulam. In order to analyse the performance of the Mallows and Generalized Mallows EDAs under the Kendall, Cayley and Ulam distances, we run them on a benchmark of 120 instances from four well known permutation problems. The conducted experiments showed that there is not just one metric that performs the best in all the problems. However, the statistical test pointed out that Mallows-Ulam EDA is the most stable algorithm among the studied proposals.

Language distance and non-native syntactic processing: Evidence from event-related potentials

[EN] In this study, we explore native and non-native syntactic processing, paying special attention to the language distance factor. To this end, we compared how native speakers of Basque and highly proficient non-native speakers of Basque who are native speakers of Spanish process certain core aspects of Basque syntax. Our results suggest that differences in native versus non-native language processing strongly correlate with language distance: native/non-native processing differences obtain if a syntactic parameter of the non-native grammar diverges from the native grammar. Otherwise, non-native processing will approximate native processing as levels of proficiency increase. We focus on three syntactic parameters: (i) the head parameter, (ii) argument alignment (ergative/accusative), and (iii) verb agreement. The first two diverge in Basque and Spanish, but the third is the same in both languages. Our results reveal that native and non-native processing differs for the diverging syntactic parameters, but not for the convergent one. These findings indicate that language distance has a significant impact in non-native language processing.

Contributions on distance-based algorithms, multi-classifier construction and pairwise classification

179 p.

Perfil motivacional de las mujeres participantes en la prueba atlética de los 3000 metros obstáculos

[ES] Los 3000 metros obstáculos es una especialidad del atletismo ubicada dentro de las pruebas de medio fondo, que comprende la carrera plana y el paso de los obstáculos, incluyendo un foso agua llamado ría. Es la especialidad de atletismo con menos participantes en carrera ya sea en género femenino como en masculino, pero ¿A qué se debe esta baja participación? Tanto la alta exigencia técnica en carrera como los pasos de los obstáculos son una de las razones, ya que, el paso de la ría requiere una refinada técnica y dificultad adquirida. Este estudio analizará a distintas atletas, con el fin de crear el perfil motivacional de las atletas que compiten en esta prueba, encontrar las razones por las que se decantan por otras especialidades del atletismo y no por esta, y con ello averiguar las razones de la baja participación en esta modalidad.

Ancient DNA from South-East Europe Reveals Different Events during Early and Middle Neolithic Influencing the European Genetic Heritage

The importance of the process of Neolithization for the genetic make-up of European populations has been hotly debated, with shifting hypotheses from a demic diffusion (DD) to a cultural diffusion (CD) model. In this regard, ancient DNA data from the Balkan Peninsula, which is an important source of information to assess the process of Neolithization in Europe, is however missing. In the present study we show genetic information on ancient populations of the South-East of Europe. We assessed mtDNA from ten sites from the current territory of Romania, spanning a time-period from the Early Neolithic to the Late Bronze Age. mtDNA data from Early Neolithic farmers of the Starcevo Cris culture in Romania (Carcea, Gura Baciului and Negrilesti sites), confirm their genetic relationship with those of the LBK culture (Linienbandkeramik Kultur) in Central Europe, and they show little genetic continuity with modern European populations. On the other hand, populations of the Middle-Late Neolithic (Boian, Zau and Gumelnita cultures), supposedly a second wave of Neolithic migration from Anatolia, had a much stronger effect on the genetic heritage of the European populations. In contrast, we find a smaller contribution of Late Bronze Age migrations to the genetic composition of Europeans. Based on these findings, we propose that permeation of mtDNA lineages from a second wave of Middle-Late Neolithic migration from North-West Anatolia into the Balkan Peninsula and Central Europe represent an important contribution to the genetic shift between Early and Late Neolithic populations in Europe, and consequently to the genetic make-up of modern European populations.

Lethal Interpersonal Violence in the Middle Pleistocene

Evidence of interpersonal violence has been documented previously in Pleistocene members of the genus Homo, but only very rarely has this been posited as the possible manner of death. Here we report the earliest evidence of lethal interpersonal violence in the hominin fossil record. Cranium 17 recovered from the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene site shows two clear perimortem depression fractures on the frontal bone, interpreted as being produced by two episodes of localized blunt force trauma. The type of injuries, their location, the strong similarity of the fractures in shape and size, and the different orientations and implied trajectories of the two fractures suggest they were produced with the same object in face-to-face interpersonal conflict. Given that either of the two traumatic events was likely lethal, the presence of multiple blows implies an intention to kill. This finding shows that the lethal interpersonal violence is an ancient human behavior and has important implications for the accumulation of bodies at the site, supporting an anthropic origin.

Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.