Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación en la gestión de tesorería: modelo explicativo

[ES] En el presente trabajo se analiza el uso de las TIC (Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación) en las responsabilidades de la gestión de la tesorería, tomando como referencia para su estudio las empresas de la CAPV (Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco). Los resultados indican que las TIC más utilizadas por las empresas en operaciones financieras son el software financiero, Internet y la banca electrónica. Además, estos resultados han permitido desarrollar un modelo explicativo del uso de las TIC en las principales funciones del tesorero, como son la gestión de cobros y pagos, gestión de la liquidez, previsiones de tesorería a corto plazo, gestión de saldos bancarios en fecha valor, negociación con entidades financieras, gestión de la financiación del déficit de tesorería, gestión de la colocación de puntas de tesorería y gestión de riesgos de tipo de interés y tipo de cambio.

Survey of the fatty acid composition of Canadian beef: Backfat and longissimus lumborum muscle

[EN]A survey of Canadian retail beef was undertaken with emphasis on the trans fatty acid (TFA) and conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) isomers, and compared with current health recommendations. Thirty striploin steaks were collected in the winter and summer from major grocery stores in Calgary (Alberta, Canada). Steak fatty acid compositions (backfat and longissimus lumborum muscle analysed separately) showed minor seasonal differences with lower total saturates (PB0.05) and higher total monounsaturates (PB 0.01) in winter, but no differences in total polyunsaturated fatty acids. The ratio of n-6 and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid in longissimus lumborum averaged 5.8. The average TFA content in longissimus lumborum was 0.128 g 100 g_1 serving size, and 10t-18:1 was found to be the predominant isomer (32% of total trans), while vaccenic acid was second most abundant (15% of total trans). The CLA content in longissimus lumborum was similar to that of backfat, ranging from 0.43 to 0.60% of total fatty acids and rumenic acid represented 60% of total isomers. Overall, there is still room for improvement in the saturated, mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acid composition of Canadian beef to meet general dietary guidelines for human consumption and additional targets should include reducing 10t-18:1 while increasing both rumenic and vaccenic acids.

The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

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