Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC

The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

Reference Points and Optimal Management in Stochastic Age-Structured Fisheries Models

The purpose of this article is to characterize dynamic optimal harvesting trajectories that maximize discounted utility assuming an age-structured population model, in the same line as Tahvonen (2009). The main novelty of our study is that uses as an age-structured population model the standard stochastic cohort framework applied in Virtual Population Analysis for fish stock assessment. This allows us to compare optimal harvesting in a discounted economic context with standard reference points used by fisheries agencies for long term management plans (e.g. Fmsy). Our main findings are the following. First, optimal steady state is characterized and sufficient conditions that guarantees its existence and uniqueness for the general case of n cohorts are shown. It is also proved that the optimal steady state coincides with the traditional target Fmsy when the utility function to be maximized is the yield and the discount rate is zero. Second, an algorithm to calculate the optimal path that easily drives the resource to the steady state is developed. And third, the algorithm is applied to the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal.

Smiling under stochastic volatility

This paper studies the behavior of the implied volatility function (smile) when the true distribution of the underlying asset is consistent with the stochastic volatility model proposed by Heston (1993). The main result of the paper is to extend previous results applicable to the smile as a whole to alternative degrees of moneyness. The conditions under which the implied volatility function changes whenever there is a change in the parameters associated with Hestons stochastic volatility model for a given degree of moneyness are given.

The Evaluation of Fisheries Management: A Dynamic Stochastic Approach

In this article, we analyze how to evaluate fishery resource management under “ecological uncertainty”. In this context, an efficient policy consists of applying a different exploitation rule depending on the state of the resource and we could say that the stock is always in transition, jumping from one steady state to another. First, we propose a method for calibrating the growth path of the resource such that observed dynamics of resource and captures are matched. Second, we apply the calibration procedure proposed in two different fishing grounds: the European Anchovy (Division VIII) and the Southern Stock of Hake. Our results show that the role played by uncertainty is essential for the conclusions. For European Anchovy fishery (Division VIII) we find, in contrast with Del Valle et al. (2001), that this is not an overexploited fishing ground. However, we show that the Southern Stock of Hake is in a dangerous situation. In both cases our results are in accordance with ICES advice.

Scenario Cluster Lagrangian Decomposition in two stage stochastic mixed 0-1 optimization

In this paper we introduce four scenario Cluster based Lagrangian Decomposition (CLD) procedures for obtaining strong lower bounds to the (optimal) solution value of two-stage stochastic mixed 0-1 problems. At each iteration of the Lagrangian based procedures, the traditional aim consists of obtaining the solution value of the corresponding Lagrangian dual via solving scenario submodels once the nonanticipativity constraints have been dualized. Instead of considering a splitting variable representation over the set of scenarios, we propose to decompose the model into a set of scenario clusters. We compare the computational performance of the four Lagrange multiplier updating procedures, namely the Subgradient Method, the Volume Algorithm, the Progressive Hedging Algorithm and the Dynamic Constrained Cutting Plane scheme for different numbers of scenario clusters and different dimensions of the original problem. Our computational experience shows that the CLD bound and its computational effort depend on the number of scenario clusters to consider. In any case, our results show that the CLD procedures outperform the traditional LD scheme for single scenarios both in the quality of the bounds and computational effort. All the procedures have been implemented in a C++ experimental code. A broad computational experience is reported on a test of randomly generated instances by using the MIP solvers COIN-OR and CPLEX for the auxiliary mixed 0-1 cluster submodels, this last solver within the open source engine COIN-OR. We also give computational evidence of the model tightening effect that the preprocessing techniques, cut generation and appending and parallel computing tools have in stochastic integer optimization. Finally, we have observed that the plain use of both solvers does not provide the optimal solution of the instances included in the testbed with which we have experimented but for two toy instances in affordable elapsed time. On the other hand the proposed procedures provide strong lower bounds (or the same solution value) in a considerably shorter elapsed time for the quasi-optimal solution obtained by other means for the original stochastic problem.

About the Stabilization of a Nonlinear Perturbed Difference Equation

This paper investigates the local asymptotic stabilization of a very general class of instable autonomous nonlinear difference equations which are subject to perturbed dynamics which can have a different order than that of the nominal difference equation. In the general case, the controller consists of two combined parts, namely, the feedback nominal controller which stabilizes the nominal (i.e., perturbation-free) difference equation plus an incremental controller which completes the stabilization in the presence of perturbed or unmodeled dynamics in the uncontrolled difference equation. A stabilization variant consists of using a single controller to stabilize both the nominal difference equation and also the perturbed one under a small-type characterization of the perturbed dynamics. The study is based on Banach fixed point principle, and it is also valid with slight modification for the stabilization of unstable oscillatory solutions.

Generating cluster submodels from a multistage stochastic mixed integer optimization model using break stage

We present a scheme to generate clusters submodels with stage ordering from a (symmetric or a nonsymmetric one) multistage stochastic mixed integer optimization model using break stage. We consider a stochastic model in compact representation and MPS format with a known scenario tree. The cluster submodels are built by storing first the 0-1 the variables, stage by stage, and then the continuous ones, also stage by stage. A C++ experimental code has been implemented for reordering the stochastic model as well as the cluster decomposition after the relaxation of the non-anticipativiy constraints until the so-called breakstage. The computational experience shows better performance of the stage ordering in terms of elapsed time in a randomly generated testbed of multistage stochastic mixed integer problems.

Consumption and portfolio rules whit stochastic hyperbolic discounting

We extend the classic Merton (1969, 1971) problem that investigates the joint consumption-savings and portfolio-selection problem under capital risk by assuming sophisticated but time-inconsistent agents. We introduce stochastic hyperbolic preferences as in Harris and Laibson (2013) and find closed-form solutions for Merton's optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem in continuous time. We find that the portfolio rule remains identical to the time-consistent solution with power utility and no borrowing constraints. However,the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is unambiguously greater than the time-consistent, exponential case and,importantly, it is also more responsive to changes in risk. These results suggest that hyperbolic discounting with sophisticated agents offers promise for contributing to explaining important aspects of asset market data.

The forward problem for the electromagnetic Helmholtz equation

157 p.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model

30 p.

On parallel computing for stochastic optimization models and algorithms

167 p.

Ab initio study of anharmonicity in high pressure Cmca-4 metallic hydrogen

Hydrogen is the only atom for which the Schr odinger equation is solvable. Consisting only of a proton and an electron, hydrogen is the lightest element and, nevertheless, is far from being simple. Under ambient conditions, it forms diatomic molecules H2 in gas phase, but di erent temperature and pressures lead to a complex phase diagram, which is not completely known yet. Solid hydrogen was rst documented in 1899 [1] and was found to be isolating. At higher pressures, however, hydrogen can be metallized. In 1935 Wigner and Huntington predicted that the metallization pressure would be 25 GPa [2], where molecules would disociate to form a monoatomic metal, as alkali metals that lie below hydrogen in the periodic table. The prediction of the metallization pressure turned out to be wrong: metallic hydrogen has not been found yet, even under a pressure as high as 320 GPa. Nevertheless, extrapolations based on optical measurements suggest that a metallic phase may be attained at 450 GPa [3]. The interest of material scientist in metallic hydrogen can be attributed, at least to a great extent, to Ashcroft, who in 1968 suggested that such a system could be a hightemperature superconductor [4]. The temperature at which this material would exhibit a transition from a superconducting to a non-superconducting state (Tc) was estimated to be around room temperature. The implications of such a statement are very interesting in the eld of astrophysics: in planets that contain a big quantity of hydrogen and whose temperature is below Tc, superconducting hydrogen may be found, specially at the center, where the gravitational pressure is high. This might be the case of Jupiter, whose proportion of hydrogen is about 90%. There are also speculations suggesting that the high magnetic eld of Jupiter is due to persistent currents related to the superconducting phase [5]. Metallization and superconductivity of hydrogen has puzzled scientists for decades, and the community is trying to answer several questions. For instance, what is the structure of hydrogen at very high pressures? Or a more general one: what is the maximum Tc a phonon-mediated superconductor can have [6]? A great experimental e ort has been carried out pursuing metallic hydrogen and trying to answer the questions above; however, the characterization of solid phases of hydrogen is a hard task. Achieving the high pressures needed to get the sought phases requires advanced technologies. Diamond anvil cells (DAC) are commonly used devices. These devices consist of two diamonds with a tip of small area; for this reason, when a force is applied, the pressure exerted is very big. This pressure is uniaxial, but it can be turned into hydrostatic pressure using transmitting media. Nowadays, this method makes it possible to reach pressures higher than 300 GPa, but even at this pressure hydrogen does not show metallic properties. A recently developed technique that is an improvement of DAC can reach pressures as high as 600 GPa [7], so it is a promising step forward in high pressure physics. Another drawback is that the electronic density of the structures is so low that X-ray di raction patterns have low resolution. For these reasons, ab initio studies are an important source of knowledge in this eld, within their limitations. When treating hydrogen, there are many subtleties in the calculations: as the atoms are so light, the ions forming the crystalline lattice have signi cant displacements even when temperatures are very low, and even at T=0 K, due to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. Thus, the energy corresponding to this zero-point (ZP) motion is signi cant and has to be included in an accurate determination of the most stable phase. This has been done including ZP vibrational energies within the harmonic approximation for a range of pressures and at T=0 K, giving rise to a series of structures that are stable in their respective pressure ranges [8]. Very recently, a treatment of the phases of hydrogen that includes anharmonicity in ZP energies has suggested that relative stability of the phases may change with respect to the calculations within the harmonic approximation [9]. Many of the proposed structures for solid hydrogen have been investigated. Particularly, the Cmca-4 structure, which was found to be the stable one from 385-490 GPa [8], is metallic. Calculations for this structure, within the harmonic approximation for the ionic motion, predict a Tc up to 242 K at 450 GPa [10]. Nonetheless, due to the big ionic displacements, the harmonic approximation may not su ce to describe correctly the system. The aim of this work is to apply a recently developed method to treat anharmonicity, the stochastic self-consistent harmonic approximation (SSCHA) [11], to Cmca-4 metallic hydrogen. This way, we will be able to study the e ects of anharmonicity in the phonon spectrum and to try to understand the changes it may provoque in the value of Tc. The work is structured as follows. First we present the theoretical basis of the calculations: Density Functional Theory (DFT) for the electronic calculations, phonons in the harmonic approximation and the SSCHA. Then we apply these methods to Cmca-4 hydrogen and we discuss the results obtained. In the last chapter we draw some conclusions and propose possible future work.

Some experiments on solving multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 programs with time stochastic dominance constraints

In this work we extend to the multistage case two recent risk averse measures for two-stage stochastic programs based on first- and second-order stochastic dominance constraints induced by mixed-integer linear recourse. Additionally, we consider Time Stochastic Dominance (TSD) along a given horizon. Given the dimensions of medium-sized problems augmented by the new variables and constraints required by those risk measures, it is unrealistic to solve the problem up to optimality by plain use of MIP solvers in a reasonable computing time, at least. Instead of it, decomposition algorithms of some type should be used. We present an extension of our Branch-and-Fix Coordination algorithm, so named BFC-TSD, where a special treatment is given to cross scenario group constraints that link variables from different scenario groups. A broad computational experience is presented by comparing the risk neutral approach and the tested risk averse strategies. The performance of the new version of the BFC algorithm versus the plain use of a state-of-the-artMIP solver is also reported.

Nonperturbative dynamical decoupling with random control

Parametric fluctuations or stochastic signals are introduced into the rectangular pulse sequence to investigate the feasibility of random dynamical decoupling. In a large parameter region, we find that the out-of-order control pulses work as well as the regular pulses for dynamical decoupling and dissipation suppression. Calculations and analysis are enabled by and based on a nonperturbative dynamical decoupling approach allowed by an exact quantum-state-diffusion equation. When the average frequency and duration of the pulse sequence take proper values, the random control sequence is robust, fault-tolerant, and insensitive to pulse strength deviations and interpulse temporal separation in the quasi-periodic sequence. This relaxes the operational requirements placed on quantum control devices to a great deal.

Novel equation to determine the hepatic triglyceride concentration in humans by MRI: diagnosis and monitoring of NAFLD in obese patients before and after bariatric surgery

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is caused by abnormal accumulation of lipids within liver cells. Its prevalence is increasing in developed countries in association with obesity, and it represents a risk factor for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Since NAFLD is usually asymptomatic at diagnosis, new non-invasive approaches are needed to determine the hepatic lipid content in terms of diagnosis, treatment and control of disease progression. Here, we investigated the potential of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to quantitate and monitor the hepatic triglyceride concentration in humans. Methods: A prospective study of diagnostic accuracy was conducted among 129 consecutive adult patients (97 obesity and 32 non-obese) to compare multi-echo MRI fat fraction, grade of steatosis estimated by histopathology, and biochemical measurement of hepatic triglyceride concentration (that is, Folch value). Results: MRI fat fraction positively correlates with the grade of steatosis estimated on a 0 to 3 scale by histopathology. However, this correlation value was stronger when MRI fat fraction was linked to the Folch value, resulting in a novel equation to predict the hepatic triglyceride concentration (mg of triglycerides/g of liver tissue = 5.082 + (432.104 * multi-echo MRI fat fraction)). Validation of this formula in 31 additional patients (24 obese and 7 controls) resulted in robust correlation between the measured and estimated Folch values. Multivariate analysis showed that none of the variables investigated improves the Folch prediction capacity of the equation. Obese patients show increased steatosis compared to controls using MRI fat fraction and Folch value. Bariatric surgery improved MRI fat fraction values and the Folch value estimated in obese patients one year after surgery. Conclusions: Multi-echo MRI is an accurate approach to determine the hepatic lipid concentration by using our novel equation, representing an economic non-invasive method to diagnose and monitor steatosis in humans.