New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Optimal fiscal policy in a multisector model with minimum expenditure requirements

This paper investigates optimal fiscal policy in a static multisector model. A Ramsey type planner chooses tax rates on each good type as well as spending levels on each good type subject to an exogenous total expenditure constraint and requirements that some minimum amount of spending be undertaken in each sector. It is shown that optimal policy does not equally spend in each sector but instead results in one of the minimum expenditure constraints binding.

Second-best tax policy in a growing economy with externalities

This paper investigates the exploitation of environmental resources in a growing economy within a second-best scal policy framework. Agents derive utility from two types of consumption goods one which relies on an environmental input and one which does not as well as from leisure and from environmental amenity values. Property rights for the environmental resource are potentially incomplete. We connect second best policy to essential components of utility by considering the elasticity of substitution among each of the four utility arguments. The results illustrate potentially important relationships between environmental amentity values and leisure. When amenity values are complementary with leisure, for instance when environmental amenities are used for recreation, taxes on extractive goods generally increase over time. On the other hand, optimal taxes on extractive goods generally decrease over time when leisure and environmental amenity values are substitutes. Unders some parameterizations, complex dynamics leading to nonmonotonic time paths for the state variables can emerge.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Preferences for Output

Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.

Regulation of Energy Metabolism by the Extracytoplasmic Function (ECF) σ Factors of Arcobacter butzleri

11 p.

Schindler's List: from fact to fiction, from fiction into film. (A case of consecutive translation)

Santamaría, José Miguel; Pajares, Eterio; Olsen, Vickie; Merino, Raquel; Eguíluz, Federico (eds.)

La historia a través del cine. China y Japón en el siglo XX

Este volumen presenta ocho películas sobre Japón y China englobadas en siete artículos. Cronológicamente abarcan un espectro amplio, particularmente en el caso japonés, que ya era una potencia cinematográfica desde los inicios del séptimo arte. El caso chino es algo diferente, con películas más bien recientes, aunque en este caso la temática histórica tiene más fuerza que en el caso japonés, en que las películas de corte histórico están casi ausentes. Así, para China, Araceli Rodríguez (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos) nos presenta La Linterna Roja, del genial Zhang Yimou, obra de temática histórica sobre la China rural de los años veinte. Fernando Martínez Rueda (Universidad del País Vasco) comenta la excelente ¡Vivir!, del mismo director, Zhan Yimou, que habla de la vida cotidiana de la China de Mao a través de los ojos de un propietario (afortunadamente para él) arruinado. Por su parte, Ricardo Martín de la Guardia (Universidad de Valladolid) nos presenta, en Juntos, la China actual con su contraste de modernidad y tradición y la difícil relación campo-ciudad que en todos los ámbitos se da hoy día en aquel país. En el caso japonés Carlos Giménez Soria (Film-Historia, Universitat de Barcelona) analiza dos películas de Kurosawa (El Ángel Ebrio y El Perro Rabioso), en las que se muestran aspectos del Japón de posguerra desde el punto de vista del neorrealismo japonés y del cine negro. En cuanto al principal trabajo de Yasujiro Ozu (Cuentos de Tokio), José Mª Tápiz lo analiza desde la perspectiva de la vida personal del gran director de cine. Otras dos películas merecen ser consideradas aparte: una de ellas de temática china (El Imperio del Sol) y la otra de tema japonés (Lost in Translation). Si bien entran dentro de la clasificación inicial, ambas han sido realizadas por directores extranjeros: la primera por Steven Spielberg y la segunda por Sofia Coppola. Podrían definirse como películas de introducción o aproximación, lo cual es de agradecer en dos culturas que, por ser muy diferentes a la nuestra, a veces requieren ser explicadas. Ambas fueron éxitos de taquilla, lo que invita a pensar sobre la utilidad de este tipo de género. A nadie se le escapa la objetiva utilidad de este tipo de cine, a la vez que el peligro que implica si se abusa del tópico. En los trabajos de Juan Vaccaro (Film-Historia, Universitat de Barcelona) y de Igor Barrenechea (Universidad del País Vasco) se nos intenta acercar al ser de ambas películas. El libro presenta también una lista, no exhaustiva, de películas chinas y japonesas que reflejan diversos aspectos de la historia de China y Japón en el siglo XX. Este volumen será de utilidad para aquellos que sientan interés por la cultura, la historia y la cinematografía de ambos países.

Sylphella puccoon gen. n., sp n. and two additional new species of aquatic oligochaetes (Lumbriculidae, Clitellata) from poorly-known lotic habitats in North Carolina (USA)

Three new species of Lumbriculidae were collected from floodplain seeps and small streams in southeastern North America. Some of these habitats are naturally acidic. Sylphella puccoon gen. n., sp. n. has prosoporous male ducts in X-XI, and spermathecae in XII-XIII. Muscular, spherical atrial ampullae and acuminate penial sheaths distinguish this monotypic new genus from other lumbriculid genera having similar arrangements of reproductive organs. Cookidrilus pocosinus sp. n. resembles its two subterranean, Palearctic congeners in the arrangement of reproductive organs, but is easily distinguished by the position of the spermathecal pores in front of the chaetae in X-XIII. Stylodrilus coreyi sp. n. differs from congeners having simple-pointed chaetae and elongate atria primarily by the structure of the male duct and the large clusters of prostate cells. Streams and wetlands of Southeastern USA have a remarkably high diversity of endemic lumbriculids, and these poorly-known invertebrates should be considered in conservation efforts.