Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Uncovering Ecosystem Service Bundles through Social Preferences

11 p.

Evaluar la calidad de vida de los cuidadores en enfermos de Alzheimer

[ES]Los cambios sociodemográficos y el aumento de la esperanza de vida han dado lugar a un aumento de algunas enfermedades, incluyendo la enfermedad de Alzheimer. La enfermedad de Alzheimer no sólo afecta a la persona que padece dicha enfermedad, sino que también repercute en la familia. Los cuidadores familiares son los que, de manera mayoritaria, se hacen cargo de la atención de estos pacientes con un compromiso de 24 horas, con lo que implica hacer cambios en sus estilos de vida. Los objetivos de este estudio son describir las características socio-demográficas, determinar la sobrecarga de los cuidadores informales y evaluar la calidad de sueño de los cuidadores. Se realizará un estudio transversal que incluirá a 40 cuidadores de enfermos de Alzheimer, seleccionados por un muestreo no probabilístico de selección por cuotas. Los participantes serán los cuidadores informales de pacientes con la enfermedad de Alzheimer que estén en el estadío III o IV de dicha enfermedad. Nuestra variable dependiente será el sueño y como variable independiente la sobrecarga. El estudio se realizará en la asociación de familiares de Alzheimer de Bilbao (A.F.A - Bizkaia), dónde se captará a la muestra de estudio y donde se procederá a aplicar los cuestionarios pertinentes para dicho estudio. Para participar en el estudio es necesario que firmen el consentimiento informado. Los instrumentos que se utilizarán son el cuestionario de Pittsburg que evalúa la calidad de sueño y la escala de carga de Zarit. Para el análisis de datos se utilizará el programa SPSS 15.0. Palabras clave: enfermedad de Alzheimer, cuidadores, cuidadores familiares, demencia, sobrecarga, sueño.

Syntactic change

[ES] En este trabajo se define el cambio sintáctico, se analizan los factores que lo causan o facilitan y se estudian sus tipos principales en griego antiguo.

Novel Evidence hat Attributing Affectively Salient Signal to Random Noise Is Associated with Psychosis

We wished to replicate evidence that an experimental paradigm of speech illusions is associated with psychotic experiences. Fifty-four patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) and 150 healthy subjects were examined in an experimental paradigm assessing the presence of speech illusion in neutral white noise. Socio-demographic, cognitive function and family history data were collected. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was administered in the patient group and the Structured Interview for Schizotypy-Revised (SIS-R), and the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE) in the control group. Patients had a much higher rate of speech illusions (33.3% versus 8.7%, ORadjusted: 5.1, 95% CI: 2.3-11.5), which was only partly explained by differences in IQ (ORadjusted: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.4-8.3). Differences were particularly marked for signals in random noise that were perceived as affectively salient (ORadjusted: 9.7, 95% CI: 1.8-53.9). Speech illusion tended to be associated with positive symptoms in patients (ORadjusted: 3.3, 95% CI: 0.9-11.6), particularly affectively salient illusions (ORadjusted: 8.3, 95% CI: 0.7-100.3). In controls, speech illusions were not associated with positive schizotypy (ORadjusted: 1.1, 95% CI: 0.3-3.4) or self-reported psychotic experiences (ORadjusted: 1.4, 95% CI: 0.4-4.6). Experimental paradigms indexing the tendency to detect affectively salient signals in noise may be used to identify liability to psychosis.