Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets

This paper models the mean and volatility spillovers of prices within the integrated Iberian and the interconnected Spanish and French electricity markets. Using the constant (CCC) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate models with three different specifications of the univariate variance processes, we study the extent to which increasing interconnection and harmonization in regulation have favoured price convergence. The data consist of daily prices calculated as the arithmetic mean of the hourly prices over a span from July 1st 2007 until February 29th 2012. The DCC model in which the variances of the univariate processes are specified with a VARMA(1,1) fits the data best for the integrated MIBEL whereas a CCC model with a GARCH(1,1) specification for the univariate variance processes is selected to model the price series in Spain and France. Results show that there are significant mean and volatility spillovers in the MIBEL, indicating strong interdependence between the two markets, while there is a weaker evidence of integration between the Spanish and French markets. We provide new evidence that the EU target of achieving a single electricity market largely depends on increasing trade between countries and homogeneous rules of market functioning.

Long memory in return structures from developed markets

[En]The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the market efficiency hypothesis. It poses a serious challenge to the supporters of random walk behavior of the stock returns indicating a potentially predictable component in the series dynamics. We computed Hurst-Mandelbrot’s Classical R/S statistic, Lo’s statistic and semi parametric GPH statistic using spectral regression. The findings suggest existence of long memory in volatility and random walk for logarithmic return series in general for all the selected stock market indices. Findings are in line with the stylized facts of financial time series.

Enhanced Operation of Electricity Distribution Grids Through Smart Metering PLC Network Monitoring, Analysis and Grid Conditioning

Low Voltage (LV) electricity distribution grid operations can be improved through a combination of new smart metering systems' capabilities based on real time Power Line Communications (PLC) and LV grid topology mapping. This paper presents two novel contributions. The first one is a new methodology developed for smart metering PLC network monitoring and analysis. It can be used to obtain relevant information from the grid, thus adding value to existing smart metering deployments and facilitating utility operational activities. A second contribution describes grid conditioning used to obtain LV feeder and phase identification of all connected smart electric meters. Real time availability of such information may help utilities with grid planning, fault location and a more accurate point of supply management.

Multi-agent modelling for the simulation of a simple smart microgrid

The smart grid is a highly complex system that is being formed from the traditional power grid, adding new and sophisticated communication and control devices. This will enable integrating new elements for distributed power generation and also achieving an increasingly automated operation so for actions of the utilities as for customers. In order to model such systems a bottom-up method is followed, using only a few basic elements which are structured into two layers: a physical layer for the electrical power transmission, and one logical layer for element communication. A simple case study is presented to analyse the possibilities of simulation. It shows a microgrid model with dynamic load management and an integrated approach that can process both electrical and communication flows.

Towards complex system design and management in the engineering domain – the smart grid challenge

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in “Emergence: Complexity and Organization”, 15 (2), pp. 14-22 (2013), copyright Taylor & Francis.

Modeling smart grids as complex systems through the implementation of intelligent hubs

ICINCO 2010

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Strategies for Power Line Communications Smart Metering Network Deployment

Smart Grids are becoming a reality all over the world. Nowadays, the research efforts for the introduction and deployment of these grids are mainly focused on the development of the field of Smart Metering. This emerging application requires the use of technologies to access the significant number of points of supply (PoS) existing in the grid, covering the Low Voltage (LV) segment with the lowest possible costs. Power Line Communications (PLC) have been extensively used in electricity grids for a variety of purposes and, of late, have been the focus of renewed interest. PLC are really well suited for quick and inexpensive pervasive deployments. However, no LV grid is the same in any electricity company (utility), and the particularities of each grid evolution, architecture, circumstances and materials, makes it a challenge to deploy Smart Metering networks with PLC technologies, with the Smart Grid as an ultimate goal. This paper covers the evolution of Smart Metering networks, together with the evolution of PLC technologies until both worlds have converged to project PLC-enabled Smart Metering networks towards Smart Grid. This paper develops guidelines over a set of strategic aspects of PLC Smart Metering network deployment based on the knowledge gathered on real field; and introduces the future challenges of these networks in their evolution towards the Smart Grid.