Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Uncovering Ecosystem Service Bundles through Social Preferences

11 p.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Preferences for Output

Using a model of an optimizing monetary authority which has preferences that weigh inflation and unemployment, Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) finds empirical evidence that the authority has asymmetric preferences for unemployment. We extend this model to weigh inflation and output and show that the empirical evidence using these series also supports an asymmetric preference hypothesis, only in our case, preferences are asymmetric for output. We also find evidence that the monetary authority targets potential output rather than some higher output level as would be the case in an extended Barro and Gordon (1983) model.

Preferences, actions and voting rules

In this paper we address several issues related to collective dichotomous decision-making by means of quaternary voting rules, i.e., when voters may choose between four actions: voting yes, voting no, abstaining and not turning up-which are aggregated by a voting rule into a dichotomous decision: acceptance or rejection of a proposal. In particular we study the links between the actions and preferences of the actors. We show that quaternary rules (unlike binary rules, where only two actions -yes or no- are possible) leave room for "manipulability" (i.e., strategic behaviour). Thus a preference profile does not in general determine an action profile. We also deal with the notions of success and decisiveness and their ex ante assessment for quaternary voting rules, and discuss the role of information and coordination in this context.

Weighting social preferences in participatory multi-criteria evaluations: a case study on sustainable natural resource management

28 p.

Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models

International fisheries agencies recommend exploitation paths that satisfy two features. First, for precautionary reasons exploitation paths should avoid high fishing mortality in those fisheries where the biomass is depleted to a degree that jeopardise the stock's capacity to produce the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Second, for economic and social reasons, captures should be as stable (smooth) as possible over time. In this article we show that a conflict between these two interests may occur when seeking for optimal exploitation paths using age structured bioeconomic approach. Our results show that this conflict be overtaken by using non constant discount factors that value future stocks considering their relative intertemporal scarcity.

How central are clients in sexual networks created by commercial sex?

Sex workers are traditionally considered important vectors of transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI). The role of clients is commonly overlooked, partially due to the lack of evidence on clients' position in the sexual network created by commercial sex. Contrasting the diffusion importance of sex workers and their clients in the map of their sexual encounters in two Web-mediated communities, we find that from diffusion perspective, clients are as important as sex workers. Their diffusion importance is closely linked to the geography of the sexual encounters: as a result of different movement patterns, travelling clients shorten network distances between distant network neighborhoods and thus facilitate contagion among them more than sex workers, and find themselves more often in the core of the network by which they could contribute to the persistence of STIs in the community. These findings position clients into the set of the key actors and highlight the role of human mobility in the transmission of STIs in commercial sexual networks.

El tratamiento por parte de Naciones Unidas de la violación sexual a mujeres en los conflictos armados: las guerras en los Balcanes

32 p.

El “círculo victimal” en la victimización sexual infantil

Mediante este estudio nos hemos acercado a la victimización sexual infantil desde el concepto de “círculo víctimal”. Tras una contextualización en la que realizamos una revisión de la bibliografía más relevante desde la óptica adoptada, presentamos nuestro propio trabajo de campo con datos de Gipuzkoa. Se han analizado un total de 51 sentencias, principalmente condenatorias, emitidas tanto por la Audiencia Provincial de Gipuzkoa como por el Juzgado de Menores de San Sebastián –incluyendo en este caso no sólo sentencias sino también expedientes-. El periodo abarcado han sido los años 2004-2014. Dicho análisis nos ha permitido considerar las características del abuso, de la víctima y del agresor, el posible impacto victimal, así como la existencia o no de antecedentes de abusos en la infancia en la vida de los agresores. Los resultados se han contrastado con los estudios teóricos y empíricos de ámbito internacional referentes al “círculo victimal” en el ámbito de los abusos sexuales infantiles, deteniéndonos especialmente en si la víctima fue abusada en la familia o fuera de ella y si se convierte en abusador de su propia familia o de alguien fuera de ella. Adicionalmente, con el objeto de introducir la voz de los propios protagonistas, a través de fuentes secundarias, se han rescatado historiales de agresores de menores con antecedentes de abusos. Asimismo se ha completado el trabajo de campo con entrevistas a expertos.

What Can the Brain Teach Us about Winemaking? An fMRI Study of Alcohol Level Preferences

Over the last few decades, wine makers have been producing wines with a higher alcohol content, assuming that they are more appreciated by consumers. To test this hypothesis, we used functional magnetic imaging to compare reactions of human subjects to different types of wine, focusing on brain regions critical for flavor processing and food reward. Participants were presented with carefully matched pairs of high- and low- alcohol content red wines, without informing them of any of the wine attributes. Contrary to expectation, significantly greater activation was found for low- alcohol than for high- alcohol content wines in brain regions that are sensitive to taste intensity, including the insula as well as the cerebellum. Wines were closely matched for all physical attributes except for alcohol content, thus we interpret the preferential response to the low- alcohol content wines as arising from top-down modulation due to the low alcohol content wines inducing greater attentional exploration of aromas and flavours. The findings raise intriguing possibilities for objectively testing hypotheses regarding methods of producing a highly complex product such as wine.