Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

Long-Term Burden and Respiratory Effects of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization in Preterm Infants — The SPRING Study

The health status of premature infants born 32(1)-35(0) weeks' gestational age (wGA) hospitalized for RSV infection in the first year of life (cases; n = 125) was compared to that of premature infants not hospitalized for RSV (controls; n = 362) through 6 years. The primary endpoints were the percentage of children with wheezing between 2-6 years and lung function at 6 years of age. Secondary endpoints included quality of life, healthcare resource use, and allergic sensitization. A significantly higher proportion of cases than controls experienced recurrent wheezing through 6 years of age (46.7% vs. 27.4%; p = 0.001). The vast majority of lung function tests appeared normal at 6 years of age in both cohorts. In children with pulmonary function in the lower limit of normality (FEV1 Z-score [-2; -1]), wheezing was increased, particularly for cases vs. controls (72.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.002). Multivariate analysis revealed the most important factor for wheezing was RSV hospitalization. Quality of life on the respiratory subscale of the TAPQOL was significantly lower (p = 0.001) and healthcare resource utilization was significantly higher (p<0.001) in cases than controls. This study confirms RSV disease is associated with wheezing in 32-35 wGA infants through 6 years of age.