The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks

This paper highlights the role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of propagation of oil price shocks both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, I show that oil price shocks have a large, persistent and statistically significant impact on the US terms of trade. Theoretically, I add oil in the model by Corsetti and Pesenti (2005) and analyse under what conditions the terms of trade plays a relevant role in the international transmission of oil price shocks. With nominal price rigidities and full exchange rate pass-through positive oil price shocks depreciate the currency of the oil importing country. The subsequent negative wealth effect adds to the recessive effect of the supply channel and may trongly reduce the consumption in the oil importing country economy. Without exchange rate pass-through oil shocks transmit to the economy only through the supply channel. The model suggests that a change in the exchange rate pass-through might contribute to explain the evidence of a weaker impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity in recent times.

Dealing with Energy-QoE Trade-Offs in Mobile Video

Scalable video coding allows an efficient provision of video services at different quality levels with different energy demands. According to the specific type of service and network scenario, end users and/or operators may decide to choose among different energy versus quality combinations. In order to deal with the resulting trade-off, in this paper we analyze the number of video layers that are worth to be received taking into account the energy constraints. A single-objective optimization is proposed based on dynamically selecting the number of layers, which is able to minimize the energy consumption with the constraint of a minimal quality threshold to be reached. However, this approach cannot reflect the fact that the same increment of energy consumption may result in different increments of visual quality. Thus, a multiobjective optimization is proposed and a utility function is defined in order to weight the energy consumption and the visual quality criteria. Finally, since the optimization solving mechanism is computationally expensive to be implemented in mobile devices, a heuristic algorithm is proposed. This way, significant energy consumption reduction will be achieved while keeping reasonable quality levels.

Effects of international trade of food and feed and human diet shifts on food security and environmental safety: integrating scales

4 p.

A dynamic CGE modelling approach for analyzing trade-offs in climate change policy options: the case of Green Climate Fund

38 p.

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.