Optimal Abandonment of Coal-Fired Stations in the EU

36 p.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Prices and the Real Exchange Rate in Hong Kong: 1985-2006

This paper has been presented at the XIII Encuentros de Economía Aplicada, Sevilla, Spain, 2010.

Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

An empirical comparison of the performance of alternative option pricing models

Published as an article in: Investigaciones Economicas, 2005, vol. 29, issue 3, pages 483-523.

Las contribuciones vascas a la Hacienda Real en la Edad Moderna: Algunos contrastes provinciales

[ES]Este artículo tiene un doble objetivo. E1 primero, ofrecer una panorámica general sobre las contribuciones fiscales de las Provincias Vascas a la Corona durante el Antiguo Régimen,resaltando las diferencias que en ese orden existían entre las tres.El segundo,situar las demandas fiscales regias en el origen de las haciendas provinciales vascas,estableciendo los distintos ritmos que se siguieron en su conformación entre los siglos XVII y XVIII, hasta alcanzar una mayor homologación ya en 1a centuria siguiente.

Discursos forales y fiscalidad real. Las provincias vascas ante el "crecimiento" de la sal de 1631

[ES]La sustitución de los millones por el crecimiento en el precio de la sal que Felipe IV estableció en 1631 provocó reacciones generalizadas en toda Castilla, y en particular entre las provincias que se hallaban exentas de pagarlos. Son conocidos los violentos disturbios de Vizcaya. En cambio, poco se sabe acerca de lo sucedido en las otras dos Provincias Exentas. El presente artículo analiza, en conjunto, la actitud que tanto Vizcaya como Guipúzcoa y Álava adoptaron ante el nuevo impuesto. Aunque las tres coincidieron en rechazarlo, lo hicieron mediante discursos y métodos bien diferentes. No en vano, lejos de lo que suele pensarse no gozaban de una plena equiparación fiscal ni jurídica.

Dialog Systems based on Markov decision processes over two real tasks

In this work the state of the art of the automatic dialogue strategy management using Markov decision processes (MDP) with reinforcement learning (RL) is described. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) are also described. To test the validity of these methods, two spoken dialogue systems have been developed. The first one is a spoken dialogue system for weather forecast providing, and the second one is a more complex system for train information. With the first system, comparisons between a rule-based system and an automatically trained system have been done, using a real corpus to train the automatic strategy. In the second system, the scalability of these methods when used in larger systems has been tested.

Un proyecto de empresa pública en Guipúzcoa: la Real Fábrica de anclas de Rentería

Las Reales Fábricas no fueron originales ni exclusivas de España, sino que los diferentes estados europeos promovieron la creación y establecimiento de estas industrias públicas, a imitación y semejanza de las Manufactures Royales francesas creadas por Colbert en la segunda mitada del siglo XVII. El proyecto de crear una Real Fábrica de anclas en Guipuzcoa se inscribe dentro de la política del Despotismo Ilustrado y de las disposiciones borbónicas encaminadas a instaurar una Marina moderna y de gran alcance.

Community structure in real-world networks from a non-parametrical synchronization-based dynamical approach

[EN]This work analyzes the problem of community structure in real-world networks based on the synchronization of nonidentical coupled chaotic Rössler oscillators each one characterized by a defined natural frequency, and coupled according to a predefined network topology. The interaction scheme contemplates an uniformly increasing coupling force to simulate a society in which the association between the agents grows in time. To enhance the stability of the correlated states that could emerge from the synchronization process, we propose a parameterless mechanism that adapts the characteristic frequencies of coupled oscillators according to a dynamic connectivity matrix deduced from correlated data. We show that the characteristic frequency vector that results from the adaptation mechanism reveals the underlying community structure present in the network.