Ancient DNA from Hunter-Gatherer and Farmer Groups from Northern Spain Supports a Random Dispersion Model for the Neolithic Expansion into Europe

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Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Efficient learning of decomposable models with a bounded clique size

The learning of probability distributions from data is a ubiquitous problem in the fields of Statistics and Artificial Intelligence. During the last decades several learning algorithms have been proposed to learn probability distributions based on decomposable models due to their advantageous theoretical properties. Some of these algorithms can be used to search for a maximum likelihood decomposable model with a given maximum clique size, k, which controls the complexity of the model. Unfortunately, the problem of learning a maximum likelihood decomposable model given a maximum clique size is NP-hard for k > 2. In this work, we propose a family of algorithms which approximates this problem with a computational complexity of O(k · n^2 log n) in the worst case, where n is the number of implied random variables. The structures of the decomposable models that solve the maximum likelihood problem are called maximal k-order decomposable graphs. Our proposals, called fractal trees, construct a sequence of maximal i-order decomposable graphs, for i = 2, ..., k, in k − 1 steps. At each step, the algorithms follow a divide-and-conquer strategy based on the particular features of this type of structures. Additionally, we propose a prune-and-graft procedure which transforms a maximal k-order decomposable graph into another one, increasing its likelihood. We have implemented two particular fractal tree algorithms called parallel fractal tree and sequential fractal tree. These algorithms can be considered a natural extension of Chow and Liu’s algorithm, from k = 2 to arbitrary values of k. Both algorithms have been compared against other efficient approaches in artificial and real domains, and they have shown a competitive behavior to deal with the maximum likelihood problem. Due to their low computational complexity they are especially recommended to deal with high dimensional domains.

Nonperturbative dynamical decoupling with random control

Parametric fluctuations or stochastic signals are introduced into the rectangular pulse sequence to investigate the feasibility of random dynamical decoupling. In a large parameter region, we find that the out-of-order control pulses work as well as the regular pulses for dynamical decoupling and dissipation suppression. Calculations and analysis are enabled by and based on a nonperturbative dynamical decoupling approach allowed by an exact quantum-state-diffusion equation. When the average frequency and duration of the pulse sequence take proper values, the random control sequence is robust, fault-tolerant, and insensitive to pulse strength deviations and interpulse temporal separation in the quasi-periodic sequence. This relaxes the operational requirements placed on quantum control devices to a great deal.

Novel Evidence hat Attributing Affectively Salient Signal to Random Noise Is Associated with Psychosis

We wished to replicate evidence that an experimental paradigm of speech illusions is associated with psychotic experiences. Fifty-four patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) and 150 healthy subjects were examined in an experimental paradigm assessing the presence of speech illusion in neutral white noise. Socio-demographic, cognitive function and family history data were collected. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was administered in the patient group and the Structured Interview for Schizotypy-Revised (SIS-R), and the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE) in the control group. Patients had a much higher rate of speech illusions (33.3% versus 8.7%, ORadjusted: 5.1, 95% CI: 2.3-11.5), which was only partly explained by differences in IQ (ORadjusted: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.4-8.3). Differences were particularly marked for signals in random noise that were perceived as affectively salient (ORadjusted: 9.7, 95% CI: 1.8-53.9). Speech illusion tended to be associated with positive symptoms in patients (ORadjusted: 3.3, 95% CI: 0.9-11.6), particularly affectively salient illusions (ORadjusted: 8.3, 95% CI: 0.7-100.3). In controls, speech illusions were not associated with positive schizotypy (ORadjusted: 1.1, 95% CI: 0.3-3.4) or self-reported psychotic experiences (ORadjusted: 1.4, 95% CI: 0.4-4.6). Experimental paradigms indexing the tendency to detect affectively salient signals in noise may be used to identify liability to psychosis.

Can environmental constraints determine random patterns of plant species co-occurrence?

Plant community ecologists use the null model approach to infer assembly processes from observed patterns of species co-occurrence. In about a third of published studies, the null hypothesis of random assembly cannot be rejected. When this occurs, plant ecologists interpret that the observed random pattern is not environmentally constrained - but probably generated by stochastic processes. The null model approach (using the C-score and the discrepancy index) was used to test for random assembly under two simulation algorithms. Logistic regression, distance-based redundancy analysis, and constrained ordination were used to test for environmental determinism (species segregation along environmental gradients or turnover and species aggregation). This article introduces an environmentally determined community of alpine hydrophytes that presents itself as randomly assembled. The pathway through which the random pattern arises in this community is suggested to be as follows: Two simultaneous environmental processes, one leading to species aggregation and the other leading to species segregation, concurrently generate the observed pattern, which results to be neither aggregated nor segregated - but random. A simulation study supports this suggestion. Although apparently simple, the null model approach seems to assume that a single ecological factor prevails or that if several factors decisively influence the community, then they all exert their influence in the same direction, generating either aggregation or segregation. As these assumptions are unlikely to hold in most cases and assembly processes cannot be inferred from random patterns, we would like to propose plant ecologists to investigate specifically the ecological processes responsible for observed random patterns, instead of trying to infer processes from patterns

Photosynthetic responses of trees in high-elevation forests: comparing evergreen species along an elevation gradient in the Central Andes

Plant growth at extremely high elevations is constrained by high daily thermal amplitude, strong solar radiation and water scarcity. These conditions are particularly harsh in the tropics, where the highest elevation treelines occur. In this environment, the maintenance of a positive carbon balance involves protecting the photosynthetic apparatus and taking advantage of any climatically favourable periods. To characterize photoprotective mechanisms at such high elevations, and particularly to address the question of whether these mechanisms are the same as those previously described in woody plants along extratropical treelines, we have studied photosynthetic responses in Polylepis tarapacana Philippi in the central Andes (18 degrees S) along an elevational gradient from 4300 to 4900 m. For comparative purposes, this gradient has been complemented with a lower elevation site (3700 m) where another Polylepis species (P. rugulosa Bitter) occurs. During the daily cycle, two periods of photosynthetic activity were observed: one during the morning when, despite low temperatures, assimilation was high; and the second starting at noon when the stomata closed because of a rise in the vapour pressure deficit and thermal dissipation is prevalent over photosynthesis. From dawn to noon there was a decrease in the content of antenna pigments (chlorophyll b and neoxanthin), together with an increase in the content of xanthophyll cycle carotenoids. These results could be caused by a reduction in the antenna size along with an increase in photoprotection. Additionally, photoprotection was enhanced by a partial overnight retention of de-epoxized xanthophylls. The unique combination of all of these mechanisms made possible the efficient use of the favourable conditions during the morning while still providing enough protection for the rest of the day. This strategy differs completely from that of extratropical mountain trees, which uncouple light-harvesting and energy-use during long periods of unfavourable, winter conditions.

Crank-Nicholson method for rate equations in powder random lasers

3rd International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences (IC-MSQUARE 2014)