Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Landscape valuation through discrete choice experiments: Current practice and future research reflections

This work has been presented in: V Conference AERNA, Faro (Portugal), 30 May 2012-1 June 2012 and IV Workshop on Valuation Methods in Agro-food and Environmental Economics, Castelldefels (Barcelona, Spain), 12 July 2012-13 July 2012.

Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Conflicts in Classification

4 p.

Classifying Ecosystem Services for Economic Valuation: The case of forest water services

30 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

Uptake and intracytoplasmic storage of pigmented particles by human CD34+stromal cells/telocytes: endocytic property of telocytes

We studied the phagocytic-like capacity of human CD34+ stromal cells/telocytes (TCs). For this, we examined segments of the colon after injection of India ink to help surgeons localize lesions identified at endoscopy. Our results demonstrate that CD34+ TCs have endocytic properties (phagocytic-like TCs: phTCs), with the capacity to uptake and store India ink particles. phTCs conserve the characteristics of TCs (long, thin, bipolar or multipolar, moniliform cytoplasmic processes/telopodes, with linear distribution of the pigment) and maintain their typical distribution. Likewise, they are easily distinguished from pigment-loaded macrophages (CD68+ macrophages, with oval morphology and coarse granules of pigment clustered in their cytoplasm). A few c-kit/CD117+ interstitial cells of Cajal also incorporate pigment and may conserve the phagocytic-like property of their probable TC precursors. CD34+ stromal cells in other locations (skin and periodontal tissues) also have the phagocytic-like capacity to uptake and store pigments (hemosiderin, some components of dental amalgam and melanin). This suggests a function of TCs in general, which may be related to the transfer of macromolecules in these cells. Our ultrastructural observation of melanin-storing stromal cells with characteristics of TCs (telopodes with dichotomous branching pattern) favours this possibility. In conclusion, intestinal TCs have a phagocytic-like property, a function that may be generalized to TCs in other locations. This function (the ability to internalize small particles), together with the capacity of these cells to release extracellular vesicles with macromolecules, could close the cellular bidirectional cooperative circle of informative exchange and intercellular interactions.

Coincidence point theorems in quasi-metric spaces without assuming the mixed monotone property and consequences in G-metric spaces

In this paper, we present some coincidence point theorems in the setting of quasi-metric spaces that can be applied to operators which not necessarily have the mixed monotone property. As a consequence, we particularize our results to the field of metric spaces, partially ordered metric spaces and G-metric spaces, obtaining some very recent results. Finally, we show how to use our main theorems to obtain coupled, tripled, quadrupled and multidimensional coincidence point results.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Approximate Solutions by Truncated Taylor Series Expansions of Nonlinear Differential Equations and Related Shadowing Property with Applications

This paper investigates the errors of the solutions as well as the shadowing property of a class of nonlinear differential equations which possess unique solutions on a certain interval for any admissible initial condition. The class of differential equations is assumed to be approximated by well-posed truncated Taylor series expansions up to a certain order obtained about certain, in general nonperiodic, sampling points t(i) is an element of [t(0), t(J)] for i = 0, 1, . . . , J of the solution. Two examples are provided.