Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Early astrocytic atrophy in the entorhinal cortex of a triple transgenic animal model of Alzheimer's disease

The EC (entorhinal cortex) is fundamental for cognitive and mnesic functions. Thus damage to this area appears as a key element in the progression of AD (Alzheimer's disease), resulting in memory deficits arising from neuronal and synaptic alterations as well as glial malfunction. In this paper, we have performed an in-depth analysis of astroglial morphology in the EC by measuring the surface and volume of the GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein) profiles in a triple transgenic mouse model of AD [3xTg-AD (triple transgenic mice of AD)]. We found significant reduction in both the surface and volume of GFAP-labelled profiles in 3xTg-AD animals from very early ages (1 month) when compared with non-Tg (non-transgenic) controls (48 and 54%, reduction respectively), which was sustained for up to 12 months (33 and 45% reduction respectively). The appearance of Lambda beta (amyloid beta-peptide) depositions at 12 months of age did not trigger astroglial hypertrophy; nor did it result in the close association of astrocytes with senile plaques. Our results suggest that the AD progressive cognitive deterioration can be associated with an early reduction of astrocytic arborization and shrinkage of the astroglial domain, which may affect synaptic connectivity within the EC and between the EC and other brain regions. In addition, the EC seems to be particularly vulnerable to AD pathology because of the absence of evident astrogliosis in response to A beta accumulation. Thus we can consider that targeting astroglial atrophy may represent a therapeutic strategy which might slow down the progression of AD.

Increase in the density of resting microglia precedes neuritic plaque formation and microglial activation in a transgenic model of Alzheimer's disease

The formation of cerebral senile plaques composed of amyloid beta peptide (A beta) is a fundamental feature of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Glial cells and more specifically microglia become reactive in the presence of A beta. In a triple transgenic model of AD (3 x Tg-AD), we found a significant increase in activated microglia at 12 (by 111%) and 18 (by 88%) months of age when compared with non-transgenic (non-Tg) controls. This microglial activation correlated with A beta plaque formation, and the activation in microglia was closely associated with A beta plaques and smaller A beta deposits. We also found a significant increase in the area density of resting microglia in 3 x Tg-AD animals both at plaque-free stage (at 9 months by 105%) and after the development of A plaques (at 12 months by 54% and at 18 months by 131%). Our results show for the first time that the increase in the density of resting microglia precedes both plaque formation and activation of microglia by extracellular A beta accumulation. We suggest that AD pathology triggers a complex microglial reaction: at the initial stages of the disease the number of resting microglia increases, as if in preparation for the ensuing activation in an attempt to fight the extracellular A beta load that is characteristic of the terminal stages of the disease. Cell Death and Disease (2010) 1, e1; doi:10.1038/cddis.2009.2; published online 14 January 2010

Plastidic Phosphoglucose Isomerase Is an Important Determinant of Starch Accumulation in Mesophyll Cells, Growth, Photosynthetic Capacity, and Biosynthesis of Plastidic Cytokinins in Arabidopsis

Phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI) catalyzes the reversible isomerization of glucose-6-phosphate and fructose-6-phosphate. It is involved in glycolysis and in the regeneration of glucose-6-P molecules in the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway (OPPP). In chloroplasts of illuminated mesophyll cells PGI also connects the Calvin-Benson cycle with the starch biosynthetic pathway. In this work we isolated pgi1-3, a mutant totally lacking pPGI activity as a consequence of aberrant intron splicing of the pPGI encoding gene, PGI1. Starch content in pgi1-3 source leaves was ca. 10-15% of that of wild type (WT) leaves, which was similar to that of leaves of pgi1-2, a T-DNA insertion pPGI null mutant. Starch deficiency of pgi1 leaves could be reverted by the introduction of a sex1 null mutation impeding beta-amylolytic starch breakdown. Although previous studies showed that starch granules of pgi1-2 leaves are restricted to both bundle sheath cells adjacent to the mesophyll and stomata guard cells, microscopy analyses carried out in this work revealed the presence of starch granules in the chloroplasts of pgi1-2 and pgi1-3 mesophyll cells. RT-PCR analyses showed high expression levels of plastidic and extra-plastidic beta-amylase encoding genes in pgi1 leaves, which was accompanied by increased beta-amylase activity. Both pgi1-2 and pgi1-3 mutants displayed slow growth and reduced photosynthetic capacity phenotypes even under continuous light conditions. Metabolic analyses revealed that the adenylate energy charge and the NAD(P) H/NAD(P) ratios in pgi1 leaves were lower than those of WT leaves. These analyses also revealed that the content of plastidic 2-C-methyl-D-erythritol 4-phosphate (MEP)-pathway derived cytokinins (CKs) in pgi1 leaves were exceedingly lower than in WT leaves. Noteworthy, exogenous application of CKs largely reverted the low starch content phenotype of pgi1 leaves. The overall data show that pPGI is an important determinant of photosynthesis, energy status, growth and starch accumulation in mesophyll cells likely as a consequence of its involvement in the production of OPPP/glycolysis intermediates necessary for the synthesis of plastidic MEP-pathway derived hormones such as CKs.