Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

About the Stabilization of a Nonlinear Perturbed Difference Equation

This paper investigates the local asymptotic stabilization of a very general class of instable autonomous nonlinear difference equations which are subject to perturbed dynamics which can have a different order than that of the nominal difference equation. In the general case, the controller consists of two combined parts, namely, the feedback nominal controller which stabilizes the nominal (i.e., perturbation-free) difference equation plus an incremental controller which completes the stabilization in the presence of perturbed or unmodeled dynamics in the uncontrolled difference equation. A stabilization variant consists of using a single controller to stabilize both the nominal difference equation and also the perturbed one under a small-type characterization of the perturbed dynamics. The study is based on Banach fixed point principle, and it is also valid with slight modification for the stabilization of unstable oscillatory solutions.

Evidence for classification of c.1852_1853AA > GC in MLH1 as a neutral variant for Lynch syndrome

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant inherited cancer syndrome characterized by early onset cancers of the colorectum, endometrium and other tumours. A significant proportion of DNA variants in LS patients are unclassified. Reports on the pathogenicity of the c.1852_1853AA>GC (p.Lys618Ala) variant of the MLH1 gene are conflicting. In this study, we provide new evidence indicating that this variant has no significant implications for LS. Methods: The following approach was used to assess the clinical significance of the p.Lys618Ala variant: frequency in a control population, case-control comparison, co-occurrence of the p.Lys618Ala variant with a pathogenic mutation, co-segregation with the disease and microsatellite instability in tumours from carriers of the variant. We genotyped p.Lys618Ala in 1034 individuals (373 sporadic colorectal cancer [CRC] patients, 250 index subjects from families suspected of having LS [revised Bethesda guidelines] and 411 controls). Three well-characterized LS families that fulfilled the Amsterdam II Criteria and consisted of members with the p.Lys618Ala variant were included to assess co-occurrence and co-segregation. A subset of colorectal tumour DNA samples from 17 patients carrying the p.Lys618Ala variant was screened for microsatellite instability using five mononucleotide markers. Results: Twenty-seven individuals were heterozygous for the p.Lys618Ala variant; nine had sporadic CRC (2.41%), seven were suspected of having hereditary CRC (2.8%) and 11 were controls (2.68%). There were no significant associations in the case-control and case-case studies. The p.Lys618Ala variant was co-existent with pathogenic mutations in two unrelated LS families. In one family, the allele distribution of the pathogenic and unclassified variant was in trans, in the other family the pathogenic variant was detected in the MSH6 gene and only the deleterious variant co-segregated with the disease in both families. Only two positive cases of microsatellite instability (2/17, 11.8%) were detected in tumours from p.Lys618Ala carriers, indicating that this variant does not play a role in functional inactivation of MLH1 in CRC patients. Conclusions: The p.Lys618Ala variant should be considered a neutral variant for LS. These findings have implications for the clinical management of CRC probands and their relatives.

The forward problem for the electromagnetic Helmholtz equation

157 p.

Budget-Neutral Financing to Unlock Energy Savings Potential: An Analysis of the ESCO Model in Barcelona

24 p.

Neutral red uptake (NRU) entseguaren optimizazioa lur-zizareen sistema immuneko zelulen kultibo primarioetan

Azken urteotan eman diren kutsatzaile desberdinen gehiegizko isurpen edo erabilpena dela eta, lurzoruetan metal astunak metatu dira eta horrek , kate trofikoaren oinarrian dauden organismoen gainean k altea k sorrarazi d itu. Eisenia fetida zizarea espezie zent inela gisa erabili da lur entsegu ekotoxikologi koet an . Esperimentu honetan Eisenia fetida - ren jariakin zelomikoan dauden eta babes funtzioa duten zelomozitoak pH desberdinetara edo Kadmio bezalako metalera esposatzeak Neutral Red (NR) edo gorri neutro tindatzaile kationikoaren harreran eta fagoz itosi ahalmenean , eragina duen aztertu nahi izan da. Esperimentua in vitro egin zen 3R filosofia jarraituz. Alde batetik, pH desberdinen eragin ari dagokio nez gorri neutroaren harrera ( NRU ) entsegua n erantzun bimodal bat behatu zen eta beste alde bate tik, f agozitatzeko ahalmenari dagokiola zelomozitoak Eagle medioan kultibatzean ez zen aldaketa esangarria ikusi kadmioa ren, kontr olaren eta kontrol positi boaren artean. Bai ordea L - 1 5 medioarekin, non kontrol posit iboa k beste biak baino absorbantzia handiagoa erakutsi zuen. Emaitza hauek erakusten dute zelomozitoe n mintza gradualki kaltetzen doala pH neutrotik aldentzen doan heinean eta puntu batetik aurrera NRU emendatzen da zelomozito batzuen (amebozitoen) fagozitosia aktibatzen d el a ko .

Novel equation to determine the hepatic triglyceride concentration in humans by MRI: diagnosis and monitoring of NAFLD in obese patients before and after bariatric surgery

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is caused by abnormal accumulation of lipids within liver cells. Its prevalence is increasing in developed countries in association with obesity, and it represents a risk factor for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Since NAFLD is usually asymptomatic at diagnosis, new non-invasive approaches are needed to determine the hepatic lipid content in terms of diagnosis, treatment and control of disease progression. Here, we investigated the potential of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to quantitate and monitor the hepatic triglyceride concentration in humans. Methods: A prospective study of diagnostic accuracy was conducted among 129 consecutive adult patients (97 obesity and 32 non-obese) to compare multi-echo MRI fat fraction, grade of steatosis estimated by histopathology, and biochemical measurement of hepatic triglyceride concentration (that is, Folch value). Results: MRI fat fraction positively correlates with the grade of steatosis estimated on a 0 to 3 scale by histopathology. However, this correlation value was stronger when MRI fat fraction was linked to the Folch value, resulting in a novel equation to predict the hepatic triglyceride concentration (mg of triglycerides/g of liver tissue = 5.082 + (432.104 * multi-echo MRI fat fraction)). Validation of this formula in 31 additional patients (24 obese and 7 controls) resulted in robust correlation between the measured and estimated Folch values. Multivariate analysis showed that none of the variables investigated improves the Folch prediction capacity of the equation. Obese patients show increased steatosis compared to controls using MRI fat fraction and Folch value. Bariatric surgery improved MRI fat fraction values and the Folch value estimated in obese patients one year after surgery. Conclusions: Multi-echo MRI is an accurate approach to determine the hepatic lipid concentration by using our novel equation, representing an economic non-invasive method to diagnose and monitor steatosis in humans.

España neutral: el impacto económico de las dos guerras mundiales (1914-1945)

Durante las dos grandes guerras mundiales España adoptó una posición de no beligerancia que conllevaría a unas consecuencias y un impacto muy diferente para la economía española en uno y en otro conflicto. Por un lado España se presenta ante la Primera Guerra Mundial como una economía totalmente atrasada y agraria, mientras que con el estallido del conflicto supo aprovechar las necesidades del momento, permitiendo de esta manera un fuerte enriquecimiento. Por otro lado, en la Segunda Guerra Mundial España se encontraba totalmente destruida y con una fuerte inestabilidad, lo cual supuso que junto con las medidas autárquicas de la dictadura conllevaran a un periodo de penuria. IDIOMA: CASTELLANO

Fe−TPP Coordination Network with Metalloporphyrinic Neutral Radicals and Face-to-Face and Edge-to-Face π−π Stacking

Artículo científico Inorg. Chem. 2013, 52, 8074−8081