Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Career Planning in Spain: Do temporary contracts delay marriage and motherhood?

The aim of this paper is to find an empirical connection between the impressive increase in the use of temporary contracts in Spain and the observed increase in age at marriage and maternity. Using a pool of the six available waves of individual information from the European Household Panel for Spain, we find that holding temporary contracts rather than permanent ones delays marriage for males, but not for females. Concerning maternity, the labor market situation of both members of the household affects entry into motherhood. In particular, if woman has a temporary contract rather than a permanent one, motherhoods is delayed independently of the husband's contract. As expected, postponement of maternity is not found for non-working women. These results give strong support to the career planning, motive to delay maternity in Spain, given that an unstable labor market situation of female workers is found to be the main deterrent to entry into motherhood.

Evidence for classification of c.1852_1853AA > GC in MLH1 as a neutral variant for Lynch syndrome

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant inherited cancer syndrome characterized by early onset cancers of the colorectum, endometrium and other tumours. A significant proportion of DNA variants in LS patients are unclassified. Reports on the pathogenicity of the c.1852_1853AA>GC (p.Lys618Ala) variant of the MLH1 gene are conflicting. In this study, we provide new evidence indicating that this variant has no significant implications for LS. Methods: The following approach was used to assess the clinical significance of the p.Lys618Ala variant: frequency in a control population, case-control comparison, co-occurrence of the p.Lys618Ala variant with a pathogenic mutation, co-segregation with the disease and microsatellite instability in tumours from carriers of the variant. We genotyped p.Lys618Ala in 1034 individuals (373 sporadic colorectal cancer [CRC] patients, 250 index subjects from families suspected of having LS [revised Bethesda guidelines] and 411 controls). Three well-characterized LS families that fulfilled the Amsterdam II Criteria and consisted of members with the p.Lys618Ala variant were included to assess co-occurrence and co-segregation. A subset of colorectal tumour DNA samples from 17 patients carrying the p.Lys618Ala variant was screened for microsatellite instability using five mononucleotide markers. Results: Twenty-seven individuals were heterozygous for the p.Lys618Ala variant; nine had sporadic CRC (2.41%), seven were suspected of having hereditary CRC (2.8%) and 11 were controls (2.68%). There were no significant associations in the case-control and case-case studies. The p.Lys618Ala variant was co-existent with pathogenic mutations in two unrelated LS families. In one family, the allele distribution of the pathogenic and unclassified variant was in trans, in the other family the pathogenic variant was detected in the MSH6 gene and only the deleterious variant co-segregated with the disease in both families. Only two positive cases of microsatellite instability (2/17, 11.8%) were detected in tumours from p.Lys618Ala carriers, indicating that this variant does not play a role in functional inactivation of MLH1 in CRC patients. Conclusions: The p.Lys618Ala variant should be considered a neutral variant for LS. These findings have implications for the clinical management of CRC probands and their relatives.

Budget-Neutral Financing to Unlock Energy Savings Potential: An Analysis of the ESCO Model in Barcelona

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Neutral red uptake (NRU) entseguaren optimizazioa lur-zizareen sistema immuneko zelulen kultibo primarioetan

Azken urteotan eman diren kutsatzaile desberdinen gehiegizko isurpen edo erabilpena dela eta, lurzoruetan metal astunak metatu dira eta horrek , kate trofikoaren oinarrian dauden organismoen gainean k altea k sorrarazi d itu. Eisenia fetida zizarea espezie zent inela gisa erabili da lur entsegu ekotoxikologi koet an . Esperimentu honetan Eisenia fetida - ren jariakin zelomikoan dauden eta babes funtzioa duten zelomozitoak pH desberdinetara edo Kadmio bezalako metalera esposatzeak Neutral Red (NR) edo gorri neutro tindatzaile kationikoaren harreran eta fagoz itosi ahalmenean , eragina duen aztertu nahi izan da. Esperimentua in vitro egin zen 3R filosofia jarraituz. Alde batetik, pH desberdinen eragin ari dagokio nez gorri neutroaren harrera ( NRU ) entsegua n erantzun bimodal bat behatu zen eta beste alde bate tik, f agozitatzeko ahalmenari dagokiola zelomozitoak Eagle medioan kultibatzean ez zen aldaketa esangarria ikusi kadmioa ren, kontr olaren eta kontrol positi boaren artean. Bai ordea L - 1 5 medioarekin, non kontrol posit iboa k beste biak baino absorbantzia handiagoa erakutsi zuen. Emaitza hauek erakusten dute zelomozitoe n mintza gradualki kaltetzen doala pH neutrotik aldentzen doan heinean eta puntu batetik aurrera NRU emendatzen da zelomozito batzuen (amebozitoen) fagozitosia aktibatzen d el a ko .

Radio-aware service-level scheduling to minimize downlink traffic delay through Mobile Edge Computing

One of the most challenging problems in mobile broadband networks is how to assign the available radio resources among the different mobile users. Traditionally, research proposals are either speci c to some type of traffic or deal with computationally intensive algorithms aimed at optimizing the delivery of general purpose traffic. Consequently, commercial networks do not incorporate these mechanisms due to the limited hardware resources at the mobile edge. Emerging 5G architectures introduce cloud computing principles to add flexible computational resources to Radio Access Networks. This paper makes use of the Mobile Edge Computing concepts to introduce a new element, denoted as Mobile Edge Scheduler, aimed at minimizing the mean delay of general traffic flows in the LTE downlink. This element runs close to the eNodeB element and implements a novel flow-aware and channel-aware scheduling policy in order to accommodate the transmissions to the available channel quality of end users.

Flight delay forecast due to weather using Data Mining

A Data Mining model that is able to predict if a flight is going to leave late due to a weather delay. It is used, to be able to get a later connection if you have a connecting flight.

España neutral: el impacto económico de las dos guerras mundiales (1914-1945)

Durante las dos grandes guerras mundiales España adoptó una posición de no beligerancia que conllevaría a unas consecuencias y un impacto muy diferente para la economía española en uno y en otro conflicto. Por un lado España se presenta ante la Primera Guerra Mundial como una economía totalmente atrasada y agraria, mientras que con el estallido del conflicto supo aprovechar las necesidades del momento, permitiendo de esta manera un fuerte enriquecimiento. Por otro lado, en la Segunda Guerra Mundial España se encontraba totalmente destruida y con una fuerte inestabilidad, lo cual supuso que junto con las medidas autárquicas de la dictadura conllevaran a un periodo de penuria. IDIOMA: CASTELLANO

Fe−TPP Coordination Network with Metalloporphyrinic Neutral Radicals and Face-to-Face and Edge-to-Face π−π Stacking

Artículo científico Inorg. Chem. 2013, 52, 8074−8081

Fluidic flow delay by ionogel passive pumps in microfluidicpaper-based analytical devices

[EN] A new concept for fluid flow manipulation in microfluidic paper-based analytical devices ( µPADs) is presented by introducing ionogel materials as passive pumps. µPADs were fabricated using a new doubleside contact stamping process and ionogels were precisely photopolymerised at the inlet of the µPADs.The ionogels remain mainly on the surface of the paper and get absorbed in the superficial paper-fibers allowing for the liquid to flow from the ionogel into the paper easily. As a proof of concept the fluid flow and mixing behaviour of two different ionogels µPADs were compared with the non-treated µPADs.It was demonstrated that both ionogels highly affect the fluid flow by delaying the flow due to their different physical and chemical properties and water holding capacities.