Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Modelling and Simulation of ERTMS for Current and Future Mobile Technologies

Nowadays, train control in-lab simulation tools play a crucial role in reducing extensive and expensive on-site railway testing activities. In this paper, we present our contribution in this arena by detailing the internals of our European Railway Train Management System in-lab demonstrator. This demonstrator is built over a general-purpose simulation framework, Riverbed Modeler, previously Opnet Modeler. Our framework models both ERTMS subsystems, the Automatic Train Protection application layer based on movement authority message exchange and the telecommunication subsystem based on GSM-R communication technology. We provide detailed information on our modelling strategy. We also validate our simulation framework with real trace data. To conclude, under current industry migration scenario from GSM-R legacy obsolescence to IP-based heterogeneous technologies, our simulation framework represents a singular tool to railway operators. As an example, we present the assessment of related performance indicators for a specific railway network using a candidate replacement technology, LTE, versus current legacy technology. To the best of our knowledge, there is no similar initiative able to measure the impact of the telecommunication subsystem in the railway network availability.