Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

Palaeoenvironmental analysis based on alluvial ostracod assemblages of the Cenicero section (lower Miocene, NW Ebro Basin)

In this work we perform for the first time a palaeoenvironmental and biostratigraphic analysis of the lower Miocene alluvial deposits of the Cenicero section (NW sector of the Ebro Basin; N Iberian Peninsula), based on the ostracod and micromammal assemblages. One of the main characteristics of this section is the unusual abundance on non-reworked ostracods present in the studied samples compared to other European sequences of similar age and sedimentary environment. This fact has allowed us to develop precise palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. The variations of the identified ostracod assemblages, defined by species such as Cyclocypris laevis, Ilyocypris bradyi, Ilyocypris gibba, Limnocythere sp. or Pseudocandona parallela, record the development of small, ephemeral and shallow ponds in a distal alluvial and/or floodplain environment. Towards the upper part of the section the ponds appear to be less ephemeral, being the aquatic systems more stable for ostracods development. Variations in the water temperature and salinity have been observed along the section, which are related to changes in the local pluviometric regime. On the other hand, the presence of micromammals in one of the studied samples has allowed the precise dating of this section. Thus, the presence of Armantomys daamsi dates the Cenicero section as Agenian (lower Miocene), local zone Y2 (MN2).