Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Proof of Concept of Impact Detection in Composites Using Fiber Bragg Grating Arrays

Impact detection in aeronautical structures allows predicting their future reliability and performance. An impact can produce microscopic fissures that could evolve into fractures or even the total collapse of the structure, so it is important to know the location and severity of each impact. For this purpose, optical fibers with Bragg gratings are used to analyze each impact and the vibrations generated by them. In this paper it is proven that optical fibers with Bragg gratings can be used to detect impacts, and also that a high-frequency interrogator is necessary to collect valuable information about the impacts. The use of two interrogators constitutes the main novelty of this paper.

An Optical Fiber Bundle Sensor for Tip Clearance and Tip Timing Measurements in a Turbine Rig

When it comes to measuring blade-tip clearance or blade-tip timing in turbines, reflective intensity-modulated optical fiber sensors overcome several traditional limitations of capacitive, inductive or discharging probe sensors. This paper presents the signals and results corresponding to the third stage of a multistage turbine rig, obtained from a transonic wind-tunnel test. The probe is based on a trifurcated bundle of optical fibers that is mounted on the turbine casing. To eliminate the influence of light source intensity variations and blade surface reflectivity, the sensing principle is based on the quotient of the voltages obtained from the two receiving bundle legs. A discrepancy lower than 3% with respect to a commercial sensor was observed in tip clearance measurements. Regarding tip timing measurements, the travel wave spectrum was obtained, which provides the average vibration amplitude for all blades at a particular nodal diameter. With this approach, both blade-tip timing and tip clearance measurements can be carried out simultaneously. The results obtained on the test turbine rig demonstrate the suitability and reliability of the type of sensor used, and suggest the possibility of performing these measurements in real turbines under real working conditions.

A Temperature Sensor Based on a Polymer Optical Fiber Macro-Bend

The design and development of a plastic optical fiber (POF) macrobend temperature sensor is presented. The sensor has a linear response versus temperature at a fixed bend radius, with a sensitivity of 1.92.10(-3) (degrees C)(-1). The sensor system used a dummy fiber-optic sensor for reference purposes having a resolution below 0.3 degrees C. A comprehensive experimental analysis was carried out to provide insight into the effect of different surrounding media on practical macro-bend POF sensor implementation. Experimental results are successfully compared with bend loss calculations.

Polymer-Optical-Fiber Lasers and Amplifiers Doped with Organic Dyes

Polymer optical fibers (POFs) doped with organic dyes can be used to make efficient lasers and amplifiers due to the high gains achievable in short distances. This paper analyzes the peculiarities of light amplification in POFs through some experimental data and a computational model capable of carrying out both power and spectral analyses. We investigate the emission spectral shifts and widths and on the optimum signal wavelength and pump power as functions of the fiber length, the fiber numerical aperture and the radial distribution of the dopant. Analyses for both step-index and graded-index POFs have been done.

Evidence for classification of c.1852_1853AA > GC in MLH1 as a neutral variant for Lynch syndrome

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant inherited cancer syndrome characterized by early onset cancers of the colorectum, endometrium and other tumours. A significant proportion of DNA variants in LS patients are unclassified. Reports on the pathogenicity of the c.1852_1853AA>GC (p.Lys618Ala) variant of the MLH1 gene are conflicting. In this study, we provide new evidence indicating that this variant has no significant implications for LS. Methods: The following approach was used to assess the clinical significance of the p.Lys618Ala variant: frequency in a control population, case-control comparison, co-occurrence of the p.Lys618Ala variant with a pathogenic mutation, co-segregation with the disease and microsatellite instability in tumours from carriers of the variant. We genotyped p.Lys618Ala in 1034 individuals (373 sporadic colorectal cancer [CRC] patients, 250 index subjects from families suspected of having LS [revised Bethesda guidelines] and 411 controls). Three well-characterized LS families that fulfilled the Amsterdam II Criteria and consisted of members with the p.Lys618Ala variant were included to assess co-occurrence and co-segregation. A subset of colorectal tumour DNA samples from 17 patients carrying the p.Lys618Ala variant was screened for microsatellite instability using five mononucleotide markers. Results: Twenty-seven individuals were heterozygous for the p.Lys618Ala variant; nine had sporadic CRC (2.41%), seven were suspected of having hereditary CRC (2.8%) and 11 were controls (2.68%). There were no significant associations in the case-control and case-case studies. The p.Lys618Ala variant was co-existent with pathogenic mutations in two unrelated LS families. In one family, the allele distribution of the pathogenic and unclassified variant was in trans, in the other family the pathogenic variant was detected in the MSH6 gene and only the deleterious variant co-segregated with the disease in both families. Only two positive cases of microsatellite instability (2/17, 11.8%) were detected in tumours from p.Lys618Ala carriers, indicating that this variant does not play a role in functional inactivation of MLH1 in CRC patients. Conclusions: The p.Lys618Ala variant should be considered a neutral variant for LS. These findings have implications for the clinical management of CRC probands and their relatives.

Fiber Bragg Gratings, IT Techniques and Strain Gauge Validation for Strain Calculation on Aged Metal Specimens

This paper studies the feasibility of calculating strains in aged F114 steel specimens with Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors and infrared thermography (IT) techniques. Two specimens have been conditioned under extreme temperature and relative humidity conditions making comparative tests of stress before and after aging using different adhesives. Moreover, a comparison has been made with IT tecniques and conventional methods for calculating stresses in F114 steel. Implementation of Structural Health Monitoring techniques on real aircraft during their life cycle requires a study of the behaviour of FBG sensors and their wiring under real conditions, before using them for a long time. To simulate aging, specimens were stored in a climate chamber at 70 degrees C and 90% RH for 60 days. This study is framed within the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) and Non Destructuve Evaluation (NDE) research lines, integrated into the avionics area maintained by the Aeronautical Technologies Centre (CTA) and the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU).

Influence of Humidity on Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors

We demonstrate the influence of the relative humidity (RH) on the wavelength of fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBGS), performing tests with five FBGS at different humidity and temperature conditions. These tests were performed in a climate chamber whose RH changes according to a scheduled profile from 30% to 90%, in steps of 10%. These profiles were repeated for a wide range of temperatures from to , in steps of . Two different types of instrumentation methods have been tested, spot welding and epoxy bonding, in two different materials, steel and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP). We discuss the results for each type of sensor and instrumentation method by analyzing the linearity of the Bragg wavelength with RH and temperature.

A Self-Referencing Intensity Based Polymer Optical Fiber Sensor for Liquid Detection

A novel self-referencing fiber optic intensity sensor based on bending losses of a partially polished polymer optical fiber (POF) coupler is presented. The coupling ratio (K) depends on the external liquid in which the sensor is immersed. It is possible to distinguish between different liquids and to detect their presence. Experimental results for the most usual liquids found in industry, like water and oil, are given. K value increases up to 10% from the nominal value depending on the liquid. Sensor temperature dependence has also been studied for a range from 25 degrees C (environmental condition) to 50 degrees C. Any sector requiring liquid level measurements in flammable atmospheres can benefit from this intrinsically safe technology.

Budget-Neutral Financing to Unlock Energy Savings Potential: An Analysis of the ESCO Model in Barcelona

24 p.

Neutral red uptake (NRU) entseguaren optimizazioa lur-zizareen sistema immuneko zelulen kultibo primarioetan

Azken urteotan eman diren kutsatzaile desberdinen gehiegizko isurpen edo erabilpena dela eta, lurzoruetan metal astunak metatu dira eta horrek , kate trofikoaren oinarrian dauden organismoen gainean k altea k sorrarazi d itu. Eisenia fetida zizarea espezie zent inela gisa erabili da lur entsegu ekotoxikologi koet an . Esperimentu honetan Eisenia fetida - ren jariakin zelomikoan dauden eta babes funtzioa duten zelomozitoak pH desberdinetara edo Kadmio bezalako metalera esposatzeak Neutral Red (NR) edo gorri neutro tindatzaile kationikoaren harreran eta fagoz itosi ahalmenean , eragina duen aztertu nahi izan da. Esperimentua in vitro egin zen 3R filosofia jarraituz. Alde batetik, pH desberdinen eragin ari dagokio nez gorri neutroaren harrera ( NRU ) entsegua n erantzun bimodal bat behatu zen eta beste alde bate tik, f agozitatzeko ahalmenari dagokiola zelomozitoak Eagle medioan kultibatzean ez zen aldaketa esangarria ikusi kadmioa ren, kontr olaren eta kontrol positi boaren artean. Bai ordea L - 1 5 medioarekin, non kontrol posit iboa k beste biak baino absorbantzia handiagoa erakutsi zuen. Emaitza hauek erakusten dute zelomozitoe n mintza gradualki kaltetzen doala pH neutrotik aldentzen doan heinean eta puntu batetik aurrera NRU emendatzen da zelomozito batzuen (amebozitoen) fagozitosia aktibatzen d el a ko .

España neutral: el impacto económico de las dos guerras mundiales (1914-1945)

Durante las dos grandes guerras mundiales España adoptó una posición de no beligerancia que conllevaría a unas consecuencias y un impacto muy diferente para la economía española en uno y en otro conflicto. Por un lado España se presenta ante la Primera Guerra Mundial como una economía totalmente atrasada y agraria, mientras que con el estallido del conflicto supo aprovechar las necesidades del momento, permitiendo de esta manera un fuerte enriquecimiento. Por otro lado, en la Segunda Guerra Mundial España se encontraba totalmente destruida y con una fuerte inestabilidad, lo cual supuso que junto con las medidas autárquicas de la dictadura conllevaran a un periodo de penuria. IDIOMA: CASTELLANO

Fe−TPP Coordination Network with Metalloporphyrinic Neutral Radicals and Face-to-Face and Edge-to-Face π−π Stacking

Artículo científico Inorg. Chem. 2013, 52, 8074−8081

Influence of Humidity on Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors

We demonstrate the influence of the relative humidity (RH) on the wavelength of fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBGS), performing tests with five FBGS at different humidity and temperature conditions. These tests were performed in a climate chamber whose RH changes according to a scheduled profile from 30% to 90%, in steps of 10%. These profiles were repeated for a wide range of temperatures from 10 degrees C to 70 degrees C, in steps of 10 degrees C. Two different types of instrumentation methods have been tested, spot welding and epoxy bonding, in two different materials, steel and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP). We discuss the results for each type of sensor and instrumentation method by analyzing the linearity of the Bragg wavelength with RH and temperature.