Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

In vitro activities of natural products against oral Candida isolates from denture wearers

Background: Candida-associated denture stomatitis is a frequent infectious disease. Treatment of this oral condition is difficult because failures and recurrences are common. The aim of this study was to test the in vitro antifungal activity of pure constituents of essentials oils. -- Methods: Eight terpenic derivatives (carvacrol, farnesol, geraniol, linalool, menthol, menthone, terpinen-4-ol, and aterpineol), a phenylpropanoid (eugenol), a phenethyl alcohol (tyrosol) and fluconazole were evaluated against 38 Candida isolated from denture-wearers and 10 collection Candida strains by the CLSI M27-A3 broth microdilution method. -- Results: Almost all the tested compounds showed antifungal activity with MIC ranges of 0.03-0.25% for eugenol and linalool, 0.03-0.12% for geraniol, 0.06-0.5% for menthol, a-terpineol and terpinen-4-ol, 0.03-0.5% for carvacrol, and 0.06-4% for menthone. These compounds, with the exception of farnesol, menthone and tyrosol, showed important in vitro activities against the fluconazole-resistant and susceptible-dose dependent Candida isolates. -- Conclusions: Carvacrol, eugenol, geraniol, linalool and terpinen-4-ol were very active in vitro against oral Candida isolates. Their fungistatic and fungicidal activities might convert them into promising alternatives for the topic treatment of oral candidiasis and denture stomatitis.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controled clinical trial of sublingual immunotherapy in natural rubber latex allergic patients

Trial registration number: CTRN12611000543987

Sibilantes tras consonante sonante en euskera: inserción vs. africación, fonética y fonología

[ES] Este artículo trata sobre el proceso fonológico que en euskera convierte en africadas las fricativas sibilantes tras consonante sonante. El análisis de dicho proceso es particularmente adecuado para la discusión de la relación recíproca entre fonética y fonología tal y defendida por la Fonología Natural. Es ese marco teórico, este trabajo estudia la motivación fonética de la fonología; por otro lado, explora las consecuencias perceptivas –tal vez también productivas– de los distintos inventarios fonémicos de cada lengua, comparando el proceso de africación vasco con el más conocido proceso inglés de inserción oclusiva. Se argumenta que la opción terminológica africación vs. inserción podría no ser una cuestión trivial sino el reflejo de alguna diferencia en el procesamiento fonológico de condiciones fonéticas básicamente equivalentes. La optimización de la estructura silábica se presenta como otro posible elemento de la configuración del proceso y como factor que contribuye a la mayor o menor relevancia de éste en lenguas tipológicamente distintas. Se ofrecen en la sección 3 algunos comentarios sobre imágenes espectrográficas como muestra de las observaciones que dieron lugar al trabajo de investigación en curso.

La contribución de los espacios protegidos al desarrollo socioeconómico de las comunidades rurales. Aplicación al parque natural de Izki (Álava)

399 p.:il.

Written words turned into moving Images: Jeanette Winterson translates "Oranges Are Not the Only Fruit for the Screen"

Eterio Pajares, Raquel Merino y José Miguel Santamaría (eds.)

From words to images and then to one image: the poster in Spielberg' s translations of literary works

Eterio Pajares, Raquel Merino y José Miguel Santamaría (eds.)

A Featureless Approach to 3D Polyhedral Building Modeling from Aerial Images

This paper presents a model-based approach for reconstructing 3D polyhedral building models from aerial images. The proposed approach exploits some geometric and photometric properties resulting from the perspective projection of planar structures. Data are provided by calibrated aerial images. The novelty of the approach lies in its featurelessness and in its use of direct optimization based on image rawbrightness. The proposed framework avoids feature extraction and matching. The 3D polyhedral model is directly estimated by optimizing an objective function that combines an image-based dissimilarity measure and a gradient score over several aerial images. The optimization process is carried out by the Differential Evolution algorithm. The proposed approach is intended to provide more accurate 3D reconstruction than feature-based approaches. Fast 3D model rectification and updating can take advantage of the proposed method. Several results and evaluations of performance from real and synthetic images show the feasibility and robustness of the proposed approach.

Desarrollo rural en Espacios Naturales Protegidos: el caso del Parque Natural de Gorbeia (1994-2008)

Una de las funciones encomendadas a los Espacios Naturales Protegidos es la promoción del desarrollo rural. Se ha tomado como caso de estudio el Parque Natural de Gorbeia para analizar la dinámica socioeconómica de su área de influencia y contrastarla con los objetivos planteados por su marco normativo. Con ello se ha puesto de manifiesto que, por una parte, el incremento poblacional y mayor dinamismo económico en su entorno probablemente responda a razones ajenas al potencial endógeno del Parque; y por otra, que la reestructuración agraria así como la búsqueda de objetivos diferentes al explícito de desarrollo rural podrían dificultar en un futuro próximo la gestión territorial y conservación medioambiental de este enclave.

Contributions to the analysis and segmentation of remote sensing hyperspectral images

142 p.

Simulación y automatización del sistema de aceite de una turbina de gas en un almacenamiento de gas natural.

73 p. : il., col.

Reinterpretación de la nasalización en terena, cubeo y chimila desde la Fonología Natural

106 p.

Caprate: un sistema de interpretación de problemas en lenguaje natural

199 p.

Discounting the value of natural resources in costbenefit analysis: a case study for policy making

4 p.

The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast

25 p.