Global movements, national grievances. Mobilizing for “real democracy” and social justice

In the ashes of political and socio-economic collapse, social movements sometimes rise like a phoenix. Little more than a year has passed since the Tunisian uprisings, the spark that ignited a series of “mobilizations of the indignant” that spread like wildfire around the world. Many observers have reported on these unprecedented global protests. They have portrayed citizens who declare feeling marginalized if not scapegoated, and who reject the increasing inequalities between rich and poor, the declining mobility of most, and the “disclassment” of many. They have shown, as well, massive protests against governments and politicians that are perceived as indifferent at best, duplicitous at worst, and in any event as blatantly closed to popular concerns. Many journalists have indeed asked what took so long for people to protest given this fatal combination. For the social scientist, however, the questions of who, why and how mobilizes are not so simple. There are specific problematics of mediation between structure, culture and individual or collective agency that need to be addressed.

The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Terrorism and the World Economy

Published as an article in: European Economic Review, 2008, vol. 52, issue 1, pages 1-27.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.

[A_Vitoria_SantaMaria] Documentación geométrica de las excavaciones de la Catedral de Santa María (Vitoria-Gasteiz). Mayo 2000-Junio 2003

[ES] Información sobre este proyecto ha servido de base a los siguientes artículos:

Autrigones, caristios, várdulos y berones. Contribuciones historiográficas (1983-2003) relativas a su evolución en época prerromana y romana

[ES] Se presenta un balance historiográfico con las propuestas y debates relevantes, originados a partir de la información, revisada o relativa a nuevos hallazgos, transmitida para estos grupos de población en los testimonios directos, arqueológicos, epigráficos o numismáticos, así como en las referencias correspondientes a autores greco-latinos.

La información televisiva en campaña electoral. Análisis de las noticias en ETB y TVE durante las elecciones municipales y autonómicas de mayo de 2003

401 p.

Origen y evolución de la relación entre periodistas y militares en operaciones. El sistema de empotrados Irak 2003

344 p.

Spinal circuits can accommodate interaction torques during multijoint limb movements

The dynamic interaction of limb segments during movements that involve multiple joints creates torques in one joint due to motion about another. Evidence shows that such interaction torques are taken into account during the planning or control of movement in humans. Two alternative hypotheses could explain the compensation of these dynamic torques. One involves the use of internal models to centrally compute predicted interaction torques and their explicit compensation through anticipatory adjustment of descending motor commands. The alternative, based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis, claims that descending signals can be simple and related to the desired movement kinematics only, while spinal feedback mechanisms are responsible for the appropriate creation and coordination of dynamic muscle forces. Partial supporting evidence exists in each case. However, until now no model has explicitly shown, in the case of the second hypothesis, whether peripheral feedback is really sufficient on its own for coordinating the motion of several joints while at the same time accommodating intersegmental interaction torques. Here we propose a minimal computational model to examine this question. Using a biomechanics simulation of a two-joint arm controlled by spinal neural circuitry, we show for the first time that it is indeed possible for the neuromusculoskeletal system to transform simple descending control signals into muscle activation patterns that accommodate interaction forces depending on their direction and magnitude. This is achieved without the aid of any central predictive signal. Even though the model makes various simplifications and abstractions compared to the complexities involved in the control of human arm movements, the finding lends plausibility to the hypothesis that some multijoint movements can in principle be controlled even in the absence of internal models of intersegmental dynamics or learned compensatory motor signals.

Physiological modules for generating discrete and rhythmic movements: action identification by a dynamic recurrent neural network

In this study we employed a dynamic recurrent neural network (DRNN) in a novel fashion to reveal characteristics of control modules underlying the generation of muscle activations when drawing figures with the outstretched arm. We asked healthy human subjects to perform four different figure-eight movements in each of two workspaces (frontal plane and sagittal plane). We then trained a DRNN to predict the movement of the wrist from information in the EMG signals from seven different muscles. We trained different instances of the same network on a single movement direction, on all four movement directions in a single movement plane, or on all eight possible movement patterns and looked at the ability of the DRNN to generalize and predict movements for trials that were not included in the training set. Within a single movement plane, a DRNN trained on one movement direction was not able to predict movements of the hand for trials in the other three directions, but a DRNN trained simultaneously on all four movement directions could generalize across movement directions within the same plane. Similarly, the DRNN was able to reproduce the kinematics of the hand for both movement planes, but only if it was trained on examples performed in each one. As we will discuss, these results indicate that there are important dynamical constraints on the mapping of EMG to hand movement that depend on both the time sequence of the movement and on the anatomical constraints of the musculoskeletal system. In a second step, we injected EMG signals constructed from different synergies derived by the PCA in order to identify the mechanical significance of each of these components. From these results, one can surmise that discrete-rhythmic movements may be constructed from three different fundamental modules, one regulating the co-activation of all muscles over the time span of the movement and two others elliciting patterns of reciprocal activation operating in orthogonal directions.

Las Mujeres en Colombia por la paz

Tesina de Master para el Magíster en Género y Desarrollo, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales, Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 94 p.

Physiological modules for generating discrete and rhythmic movements: Component analysis of EMG signals

A central question in Neuroscience is that of how the nervous system generates the spatiotemporal commands needed to realize complex gestures, such as handwriting. A key postulate is that the central nervous system (CNS) builds up complex movements from a set of simpler motor primitives or control modules. In this study we examined the control modules underlying the generation of muscle activations when performing different types of movement: discrete, point-to-point movements in eight different directions and continuous figure-eight movements in both the normal, upright orientation and rotated 90 degrees. To test for the effects of biomechanical constraints, movements were performed in the frontal-parallel or sagittal planes, corresponding to two different nominal flexion/abduction postures of the shoulder. In all cases we measured limb kinematics and surface electromyographic activity (EMB) signals for seven different muscles acting around the shoulder. We first performed principal component analysis (PCA) of the EMG signals on a movement-by-movement basis. We found a surprisingly consistent pattern of muscle groupings across movement types and movement planes, although we could detect systematic differences between the PCs derived from movements performed in each sholder posture and between the principal components associated with the different orientations of the figure. Unexpectedly we found no systematic differences between the figute eights and the point-to-point movements. The first three principal components could be associated with a general co-contraction of all seven muscles plus two patterns of reciprocal activatoin. From these results, we surmise that both "discrete-rhythmic movements" such as the figure eight, and discrete point-to-point movement may be constructed from three different fundamental modules, one regulating the impedance of the limb over the time span of the movement and two others operating to generate movement, one aligned with the vertical and the other aligned with the horizontal.