Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Randomised, crossover clinical trial, in healthy volunteers, to compare the systemic availability of two topical intranasal budesonide formulations

Background: Budesonide has a long history as intranasal drug, with many marketed products. Efforts should be made to demonstrate the therapeutic equivalence and safety comparability between them. Given that systemic availability significantly varies from formulations, the clinical comparability of diverse products comes to be of clinical interest and a regulatory requirement. The aim of the present study was to compare the systemic availability, pharmacodynamic effect, and safety of two intranasal budesonide formulations for the treatment of rhinitis. Methods: Eighteen healthy volunteers participated in this randomised, controlled, crossover, clinical trial. On two separated days, subjects received a single dose of 512 mu g budesonide (4 puffs per nostril) from each of the assayed devices (Budesonida nasal 64 (R), Aldo-Union, Spain and Rhinocort 64 (R), AstraZeneca, Spain). Budesonide availability was determined by the measurement of budesonide plasma concentration. The pharmacodynamic effect on the hypothalamic-adrenal axis was evaluated as both plasma and urine cortisol levels. Adverse events were tabulated and described. Budesonide availability between formulations was compared by the calculation of 90% CI intervals of the ratios of the main pharmacokinetic parameters describing budesonide bioavailability. Plasma cortisol concentration-time curves were compared by means of a GLM for Repeated Measures. Urine cortisol excretion between formulations was compared through the Wilcoxon's test. Results: All the enroled volunteers successfully completed the study. Pharmacokinetic parameters were comparable in terms of AUC(t) (2.6 +/- 1.5 vs 2.2 +/- 0.7), AUCi (2.9 +/- 1.5 vs 2.4 +/- 0.7), t(max) (0.4 +/- 0.1 vs 0.4 +/- 0.2), C(max)/AUC(i) (0.3 +/- 0.1 vs 0.3 +/- 0.0), and MRT (5.0 +/- 1.4 vs 4.5 +/- 0.6), but not in the case of C(max) (0.9 +/- 0.3 vs 0.7 +/- 0.2) and t(1/2) (3.7 +/- 1.8 vs 2.9 +/- 0.4). The pharmacodynamic effects, measured as the effect over plasma and urine cortisol, were also comparables between both formulations. No severe adverse events were reported and tolerance was comparable between formulations. Conclusion: The systemic availability of intranasal budesonide was comparable for both formulations in terms of most pharmacokinetic parameters. The pharmacodynamic effect on hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis was also similar. Side effects were scarce and equivalent between the two products. This methodology to compare different budesonide-containing devices is reliable and easy to perform, and should be recommended for similar products intented to be marketed or already on the market.

A New Method for Feedback on the Quality of Chest Compressions during Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Quality of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) improves through the use of CPR feedback devices. Most feedback devices integrate the acceleration twice to estimate compression depth. However, they use additional sensors or processing techniques to compensate for large displacement drifts caused by integration. This study introduces an accelerometer-based method that avoids integration by using spectral techniques on short duration acceleration intervals. We used a manikin placed on a hard surface, a sternal triaxial accelerometer, and a photoelectric distance sensor (gold standard). Twenty volunteers provided 60 s of continuous compressions to test various rates (80-140 min(-1)), depths (3-5 cm), and accelerometer misalignment conditions. A total of 320 records with 35312 compressions were analysed. The global root-mean-square errors in rate and depth were below 1.5 min(-1) and 2 mm for analysis intervals between 2 and 5 s. For 3 s analysis intervals the 95% levels of agreement between the method and the gold standard were within -1.64-1.67 min(-1) and -1.69-1.72 mm, respectively. Accurate feedback on chest compression rate and depth is feasible applying spectral techniques to the acceleration. The method avoids additional techniques to compensate for the integration displacement drift, improving accuracy, and simplifying current accelerometer-based devices.

Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

On the Stability and Equilibrium Points of Multistaged SI (n) R Epidemic Models

This paper relies on the concept of next generation matrix defined ad hoc for a new proposed extended SEIR model referred to as SI(n)R-model to study its stability. The model includes n successive stages of infectious subpopulations, each one acting at the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage in a cascade global disposal where each infectious population acts as the exposed subpopulation of the next infectious stage. The model also has internal delays which characterize the time intervals of the coupling of the susceptible dynamics with the infectious populations of the various cascade infectious stages. Since the susceptible subpopulation is common, and then unique, to all the infectious stages, its coupled dynamic action on each of those stages is modeled with an increasing delay as the infectious stage index increases from 1 to n. The physical interpretation of the model is that the dynamics of the disease exhibits different stages in which the infectivity and the mortality rates vary as the individual numbers go through the process of recovery, each stage with a characteristic average time.