Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Landscape Genetics for the Empirical Assessment of Resistance Surfaces: The European Pine Marten (Martes martes) as a Target-Species of a Regional Ecological Network

Coherent ecological networks (EN) composed of core areas linked by ecological corridors are being developed worldwide with the goal of promoting landscape connectivity and biodiversity conservation. However, empirical assessment of the performance of EN designs is critical to evaluate the utility of these networks to mitigate effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Landscape genetics provides a particularly valuable framework to address the question of functional connectivity by providing a direct means to investigate the effects of landscape structure on gene flow. The goals of this study are (1) to evaluate the landscape features that drive gene flow of an EN target species (European pine marten), and (2) evaluate the optimality of a regional EN design in providing connectivity for this species within the Basque Country (North Spain). Using partial Mantel tests in a reciprocal causal modeling framework we competed 59 alternative models, including isolation by distance and the regional EN. Our analysis indicated that the regional EN was among the most supported resistance models for the pine marten, but was not the best supported model. Gene flow of pine marten in northern Spain is facilitated by natural vegetation, and is resisted by anthropogenic landcover types and roads. Our results suggest that the regional EN design being implemented in the Basque Country will effectively facilitate gene flow of forest dwelling species at regional scale.