Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Does Immigration Raise Natives’ Income? National and Regional Evidence from Spain

How immigration affects the labor market of the host country is a topic of major concern for many immigrant-receiving nations. Spain is no exception following the rapid increase in immigrant flows experienced over the past decade. We assess the impact of immigration on Spanish natives’ income by estimating the net immigration surplus accruing at the national level and at high immigrant-receiving regions while taking into account the imperfect substitutability of immigrant and native labor. Specifically, using information on the occupational densities of immigrants and natives of different skill levels, we develop a mapping of immigrant-to-native self-reported skills that reveals the combination of natives across skills that would be equivalent to an immigrant of a given self-reported skill level, which we use to account for any differences between immigrant self-reported skill levels and their effective skills according to the Spanish labor market. We find that the immigrant surplus amounts to 0.04 percent of GDP at the national level and it is even higher for some of the main immigrant-receiving regions, such as Cataluña, Valencia, Madrid, and Murcia.

Income Taxation and Growth in an OLG Economy: Does Aggregate Uncertainty Play any Role?

We analyze the effects of capital income taxation on long-run growth in a stochastic, two-period overlapping generations economy. Endogenous growth is driven by a positive externality of physical capital in the production sector that makes firms exhibit an aggregate technology in equilibrium. We distinguish between capital income and labor income, and between attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution of consumption. We show necessary and sufficient conditions such that i) increments in the capital income taxation lead to higher equilibrium growth rates, and ii) the effect of changes in the capital income tax rate on the equilibrium growth may be of opposite signs in stochastic and in deterministic economies. Such a sign reversal is shown to be more likely depending on i) how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares to one, and ii) the size of second- period labor supply. Numerical simulations show that for reasonable values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, a sign reversal shows up only for implausibly high values of the second- period’s labor supply. The conclusion is that deterministic OLG economies are a good approximation of the effect of taxes on the equilibrium growth rate as in Smith (1996).

The cross layer RMPA handover: a reliable mobility pattern aware handover strategy for broadband wireless communication in a high-speed railway domain

Enhancing the handover process in broadband wireless communication deployment has traditionally motivated many research initiatives. In a high-speed railway domain, the challenge is even greater. Owing to the long distances covered, the mobile node gets involved in a compulsory sequence of handover processes. Consequently, poor performance during the execution of these handover processes significantly degrades the global end-to-end performance. This article proposes a new handover strategy for the railway domain: the RMPA handover, a Reliable Mobility Pattern Aware IEEE 802.16 handover strategy "customized" for a high-speed mobility scenario. The stringent high mobility feature is balanced with three other positive features in a high-speed context: mobility pattern awareness, different sources for location discovery techniques, and a previously known traffic data profile. To the best of the authors' knowledge, there is no IEEE 802.16 handover scheme that simultaneously covers the optimization of the handover process itself and the efficient timing of the handover process. Our strategy covers both areas of research while providing a cost-effective and standards-based solution. To schedule the handover process efficiently, the RMPA strategy makes use of a context aware handover policy; that is, a handover policy based on the mobile node mobility pattern, the time required to perform the handover, the neighboring network conditions, the data traffic profile, the received power signal, and current location and speed information of the train. Our proposal merges all these variables in a cross layer interaction in the handover policy engine. It also enhances the handover process itself by establishing the values for the set of handover configuration parameters and mechanisms of the handover process. RMPA is a cost-effective strategy because compatibility with standards-based equipment is guaranteed. The major contributions of the RMPA handover are in areas that have been left open to the handover designer's discretion. Our simulation analysis validates the RMPA handover decision rules and design choices. Our results supporting a high-demand video application in the uplink stream show a significant improvement in the end-to-end quality of service parameters, including end-to-end delay (22%) and jitter (80%), when compared with a policy based on signal-to-noise-ratio information.

Analytical efficiency evaluation of a network mobility management protocol for Intelligent Transportation Systems

One of the major concerns in an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) scenario, such as that which may be found on a long-distance train service, is the provision of efficient communication services, satisfying users' expectations, and fulfilling even highly demanding application requirements, such as safety-oriented services. In an ITS scenario, it is common to have a significant amount of onboard devices that comprise a cluster of nodes (a mobile network) that demand connectivity to the outside networks. This demand has to be satisfied without service disruption. Consequently, the mobility of the mobile network has to be managed. Due to the nature of mobile networks, efficient and lightweight protocols are desired in the ITS context to ensure adequate service performance. However, the security is also a key factor in this scenario. Since the management of the mobility is essential for providing communications, the protocol for managing this mobility has to be protected. Furthermore, there are safety-oriented services in this scenario, so user application data should also be protected. Nevertheless, providing security is expensive in terms of efficiency. Based on this considerations, we have developed a solution for managing the network mobility for ITS scenarios: the NeMHIP protocol. This approach provides a secure management of network mobility in an efficient manner. In this article, we present this protocol and the strategy developed to maintain its security and efficiency in satisfactory levels. We also present the developed analytical models to analyze quantitatively the efficiency of the protocol. More specifically, we have developed models for assessing it in terms of signaling cost, which demonstrates that NeMHIP generates up to 73.47% less signaling compared to other relevant approaches. Therefore, the results obtained demonstrate that NeMHIP is the most efficient and secure solution for providing communications in mobile network scenarios such as in an ITS context.

Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)

40 p.

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Geographical mobility and the labour market

This paper studies the e ect of home-owners' migration costs on migration and unemployment in an economy where workers move both for work- and nonwork- related reasons. To this end, a search model with heterogeneous locations is developed and calibrated to the U.S. economy. Consistent with the empirical evidence, the model predicts that home-owners have a lower unemployment rate than renters despite their higher migration costs. The result is due to home-owners' higher transition rate to employment and lower transition rate to unemployment.In addition, the model generates lower inequality in home-owners' local unemployment rates than in renters'. In line with this result, it is documented that, for the period 1996-2013, home-owners had less unemployment dispersion across metropolitan areas than renters.

Income tax progressivity, growth, income inequality and welfare

This paper analyzes the effects of personal income tax progressivity on long-run economic growth, income inequality and social welfare. The quantitative implications of income tax progressivity increments are illustrated for the US economy under three main headings: individual effects (reduced labor supply and savings, and increased dispersion of tax rates); aggregate effects (lower GDP growth and lower income inequality); and welfare effects (lower dispersion of consumption across individuals and higher leisure levels, but also lower growth of future consumption). The social discount factor proves to be crucial for this third effect: a higher valuation of future generations' well-being requires a lower level of progressivity. Additionally, if tax revenues are used to provide a public good rather than just being discarded, a higher private valuation of such public goods will also call for a lower level of progressivity.