Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.

Changes in social inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in Southern Europe: the case of the Basque Country

Background: Health expectancy is a useful tool to monitor health inequalities. The evidence about the recent changes in social inequalities in healthy expectancy is relatively scarce and inconclusive, and most studies have focused on Anglo-Saxon and central or northern European countries. The objective of this study was to analyse the changes in socioeconomic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in a Southern European population, the Basque Country, during the first decade of the 21st century. Methods: This was an ecological cross-sectional study of temporal trends on the Basque population in 1999-2003 and 2004-2008. All-cause mortality rate, life expectancy, prevalence of disability and disability free-life expectancy were calculated for each period according to the deprivation level of the area of residence. The slope index of inequality and the relative index of inequality were calculated to summarize and compare the inequalities in the two periods. Results: Disability free-life expectancy decreased as area deprivation increased both in men and in women. The difference between the most extreme groups in 2004-2008 was 6.7 years in men and 3.7 in women. Between 1999-2003 and 2004-2008, socioeconomic inequalities in life expectancy decreased, and inequalities in disability-free expectancy increased in men and decreased in women. Conclusions: This study found important socioeconomic inequalities in health expectancy in the Basque Country. These inequalities increased in men and decreased in women in the first decade of the 21st century, during which the Basque Country saw considerable economic growth.

Streptococcus pyogenes Pneumonia in Adults: Clinical Presentation and Molecular Characterization of Isolates 2006-2015

Introduction In the preantibiotic era Streptococcus pyogenes was a common cause of severe pneumonia but currently, except for postinfluenza complications, it is not considered a common cause of community-acquired pneumonia in adults. Aim and Material and Methods This study aimed to identify current clinical episodes of S. pyogenes pneumonia, its relationship with influenza virus circulation and the genotypes of the involved isolates during a decade in a Southern European region (Gipuzkoa, northern Spain). Molecular analysis of isolates included emm, multilocus-sequence typing, and superantigen profile determination. Results Forty episodes were detected (annual incidence 1.1 x 100,000 inhabitants, range 0.29-2.29). Thirty-seven episodes were community-acquired, 21 involved an invasive infection and 10 developed STSS. The associated mortality rate was 20%, with half of the patients dying within 24 hours after admission. Influenza coinfection was confirmed in four patients and suspected in another. The 52.5% of episodes occurred outside the influenza seasonal epidemic. The 67.5% of affected persons were elderly individuals and adults with severe comorbidities, although 13 patients had no comorbidities, 2 of them had a fatal outcome. Eleven clones were identified, the most prevalent being emm1/ST28 (43.6%) causing the most severe cases. Conclusions S. pyogenes pneumonia had a continuous presence frequently unrelated to influenza infection, being rapidly fatal even in previously healthy individuals.