Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Influence of the northeastern Atlantic oceano-meteorological variability on the northern hake ("merluccius merluccius"). Analysis of the 1978-2006 period

316 p. : il., graf., map.

Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic beta effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

Variability in the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay, as observed by HF radar data

Two high-frequency (HF) radar stations were installed on the coast of the south-eastern Bay of Biscay in 2009, providing high spatial and temporal resolution and large spatial coverage of currents in the area for the first time. This has made it possible to quantitatively assess the air-sea interaction patterns and timescales for the period 2009-2010. The analysis was conducted using the Barnett-Preisendorfer approach to canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of reanalysis surface winds and HF radar-derived surface currents. The CCA yields two canonical patterns: the first wind-current interaction pattern corresponds to the classical Ekman drift at the sea surface, whilst the second describes an anticyclonic/cyclonic surface circulation. The results obtained demonstrate that local winds play an important role in driving the upper water circulation. The wind-current interaction timescales are mainly related to diurnal breezes and synoptic variability. In particular, the breezes force diurnal currents in waters of the continental shelf and slope of the south-eastern Bay. It is concluded that the breezes may force diurnal currents over considerably wider areas than that covered by the HF radar, considering that the northern and southern continental shelves of the Bay exhibit stronger diurnal than annual wind amplitudes.

Water quality assessment and characterisation of chlorophyll-a variability related to river discharges, within the southeastern Bay of Biscay : evaluation and development of chlorophyll-a algorithms for MODIS and MERIS imagery

222 p. : il.

Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models

International fisheries agencies recommend exploitation paths that satisfy two features. First, for precautionary reasons exploitation paths should avoid high fishing mortality in those fisheries where the biomass is depleted to a degree that jeopardise the stock's capacity to produce the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Second, for economic and social reasons, captures should be as stable (smooth) as possible over time. In this article we show that a conflict between these two interests may occur when seeking for optimal exploitation paths using age structured bioeconomic approach. Our results show that this conflict be overtaken by using non constant discount factors that value future stocks considering their relative intertemporal scarcity.